{"id":{"repo_id":"vu-aus","oai_identifier":"oai:eprints.vu.edu.au:16046"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/vu-aus/oai:eprints.vu.edu.au:16046","repository":{"repo_id":"vu-aus","name":"Victoria University (Australia)","base_url":"https://vuir.vu.edu.au/cgi/oai2"},"display":{"title":"Forecasting international regional tourist arrivals to China","abstract":"This study develops models to forecast international arrivals to regional China, using time series as well as causal explanatory methods. The nine quantitative forecast methods applied in this study are Holt, Exponential Smoothing, Naïve, ARMA, Neural, and Basic Structural Model (BSM) with and without intervention, and the causal explanatory forecast models are the Time-Varying Parameter (TVP) with and without dummy variables. 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