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Virginia Tech

Optimization of Multi-Reservoir Management Rules Subject to Climate and Demand Change in the Potomac River Basin

Abstract

dc:description.abstract

Water management in the Washington Metropolitan Area (WMA) is challenging because the system relies on flow in the Potomac river, which is largely uncontrolled and augmented by the Jennings-Randolph reservoir, located 9-10 days travel time upstream. Given this lag, release decisions must be made collectively by federal, state and local stakeholders amid significant uncertainty, well in advance of accurate weather forecasts with no ability to recapture excess releases. Adding to this uncertainty are predictions of more severe and sporadic rainfall over the next century, caused by anthropogenic climate change. This study aims to evaluate the potential impacts of demand and climate change on the WMA water supply system, identifying changes in system vulnerability over the next century and developing adaptation strategies designed to maximize efficiency in a nonstationary system. A daily stochastic streamflow generation model is presented, which succesfully replicates statistics of the historical streamflow record and can produce climate-adjusted daily time-series. Using these time series, a multi-objective evolutionary algorithm is used to optimize the system's operating rules given current and future conditions, considering several competing objectives.

Degree

thesis:*
Name thesis:degree_name
Ph. D.
Level thesis:degree_level
doctoral
Discipline thesis:degree_discipline
Civil Engineering
Department dc:contributor.department
Civil Engineering
Grantor dc:publisher
Virginia Tech
Year dc:date.issued
2012

Author and committee

dc:creator, dc:contributor.*
Author dc:creator
  • Stagge, James Howard
Chair dc:contributor.committeechair
  • Moglen, Glenn E.
Committee members dc:contributor.committeemember
  • Grizzard, Thomas J.
  • Godrej, Adil N.
  • Triantis, Konstantinos P.

Subjects

dc:subject × 5

Rights

dc:rights
Statement dc:rights
  • In Copyright
Language dc:language.iso
en_US

Identifiers

dc:identifier.*
Dc Identifier Other
etd-07242012-161110
OAI identifier oai:identifier
oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/77144

Chain of custody

source
Harvested from
Virginia Tech
Base URL
vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/oai/request
Last updated
2026-07-22
Source record
OAI-PMH GetRecord
citation

Stagge, James Howard. Optimization of Multi-Reservoir Management Rules Subject to Climate and Demand Change in the Potomac River Basin. doctoral thesis, Virginia Tech, 2012. http://hdl.handle.net/10919/77144