The effects of life history strategy and uncertainty on a probability-based approach to managing the risk of overfishing

Recent U.S. legislation applies a precautionary approach to setting catch regulations in federal fisheries management. A transparent approach to complying with federal guidelines involves calculating the catch recommendation that corresponds to a specified probability, P*, of exceeding the "true" overfishing limit (OFL) located within an estimated distribution. The P* methodology aims to manage the risk of overfishing explicitly, but choice of P* alone does not provide sufficient information on all of the risks associated with a control rule—both the probability of overfishing and the severity of overfishing. Rather, the ramifications of P* choices depend on the amount of uncertainty in the stock assessment and on the life history of the species in question. To evaluate these effects on the risks associated with P* rules, my study simulated fishing three example species under three levels of uncertainty. Trends identified among example species were consistent with predictions from life history. Periodic strategists, which have highly variable recruitment, experienced probabilities of overfishing which exceeded P* and which increased in time. Equilibrium strategists showed more predictable risks of overfishing but may have less capacity to recover from depleted biomass levels. Differences in the size of the OFL distribution—representing differences in levels of uncertainty—led to mixed results depending on whether the distribution was biased or whether uncertainty was fully characterized. Lastly, because OFL distributions are themselves estimates and subject to uncertainty in their shape and size, lower P* values closer to the tails of the estimated distribution produced more variable resulting risks.

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Science

Level thesis:degree_level

masters

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences

Department dc:contributor.department

Fisheries and Wildlife Sciences

Grantor dc:publisher

Virginia Tech

Year dc:date.issued

2012

Author dc:creator

• Susko, Emily Clare

Chair dc:contributor.committeechair

• Berkson, James M.

Committee members dc:contributor.committeemember

• Jiao, Yan
• Conn, Paul
• Orth, Donald J.

• gulf menhaden
• simulation model
• life history
• sandbar shark
• uncertainty
• risk
• fisheries management
• vermilion snapper
• stock assessment

Statement dc:rights

• In Copyright

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Language dc:language.iso

en_US

Dc Identifier Other

etd-03022012-012029

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/76939