Optimization of multiple investments with risk analysis

The increasing amounts of initial capital investments in the chemical and petroleum industry are making accurate and realistic economic analyses a necessity. The purpose of this investigation was to develop a general economic evaluation model which was an improvement over previous analysis techniques. The new aspect of this model is its capability of analysing multiple investments with a comprehensive risk analysis and with a short computer running time. Significant features of the analysis technique include: (1) A general and flexible computer model which can easily be applied to a wide range of capital investment decisions, (2) The use of present value for a consistent and realistic economic evaluation criterion, (3) Consideration of the future economic environment through the capability of predicting the time-dependent changes of the main variables, (4) Monte Carlo risk analysis to determine the effect of uncertainty in the 14 main variables, (5) Two-plant analysis with the advantage of a delayed decision on the second plant, and (6) Execution in a relatively short computer running time (six minutes on IBM 360, 65).

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Science

Level thesis:degree_level

masters

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Chemical Engineering

Department dc:contributor.department

Chemical Engineering

Grantor dc:publisher

Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University

Year dc:date.issued

1970

Author dc:creator

• Sims, Stephen Paul

Statement dc:rights

• In Copyright

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Language dc:language.iso

en_US

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/10919/71051

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/71051