Development of Enhanced Pavement Deterioration Curves

Modeling pavement deterioration and predicting the pavement performance is crucial for optimum pavement network management. Currently only a few models exist that incorporate the structural capacity of the pavements into deterioration modeling. This thesis develops pavement deterioration models that take into account, along with the age of the pavement, the pavement structural condition expressed in terms of the Modified Structural Index (MSI). The research found MSI to be a significant input parameter that affects the rate of deterioration of a pavement section by using the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The AIC method suggests that a model that includes the MSI is at least 10^21 times more likely to be closer to the true model than a model that does not include the MSI. The developed models display the average deterioration of pavement sections for specific ages and MSI values. Virginia Department of Transportation (VDOT) annually collects pavement condition data on road sections with various lengths. Due to the nature of data collection practices, many biased measurements or influential outliers exist in this data. Upon the investigation of data quality and characteristics, the models were built based on filtered and cleansed data. Following the regression models, an empirical Bayesian approach was employed to reduce the variance between observed and predicted conditions and to deliver a more accurate prediction model.

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Science

Level thesis:degree_level

masters

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Civil Engineering

Department dc:contributor.department

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Grantor dc:publisher

Virginia Tech

Year dc:date.issued

2015

Author dc:creator

• Ercisli, Safak

Chair dc:contributor.committeechair

• Flintsch, Gerardo W.

Committee members dc:contributor.committeemember

• Katicha, Samer Wehbe
• Diefenderfer, Brian Keith

• pavement deterioration curve
• deterioration model
• performance prediction
• regression
• empirical Bayesian

Statement dc:rights

• In Copyright

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Dc Identifier Other

vt_gsexam:6228

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/56599