{"id":{"repo_id":"vt","oai_identifier":"oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/32595"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/vt/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/32595","repository":{"repo_id":"vt","name":"Virginia Tech","base_url":"https://vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Modeling the United States Unemployment Rate with the Preisach Model of Hysteresis","abstract":"A system with hysteresis is one that exhibits path dependent but rate independent memory. Hysteresis can be observed physically through the magnetization of a ferromagnetic material. In order to mathematically describe systems with hysteresis, we use the Preisach model. A discussion of the Preisach model is given as well as a method for computing the hysteretic transformation of an input variable. The focus of this paper is hysteresis in economics, namely, unemployment. We consider essential time series techniques for analyzing time series data, i.e. unit root testing for stationarity. However, we point out problems in modeling hysteresis with these techniques and argue that unit root tests cannot capture the selective memory of a system with hysteresis. For that, hysteresis in economic time series data is modeled using the Preisach model. We test the explanatory power of the previous unemployment rate on the current unemployment rate using both a hysteretic and non-hysteretic model. We find that the non-hysteretic model is better at explaining current unemployment rates, which suggests hysteresis is not present in the United States unemployment rate.","abstract_html":"A system with hysteresis is one that exhibits path dependent but rate independent memory. Hysteresis can be observed physically through the magnetization of a ferromagnetic material. In order to mathematically describe systems with hysteresis, we use the Preisach model. A discussion of the Preisach model is given as well as a method for computing the hysteretic transformation of an input variable. The focus of this paper is hysteresis in economics, namely, unemployment. We consider essential time series techniques for analyzing time series data, i.e. unit root testing for stationarity. However, we point out problems in modeling hysteresis with these techniques and argue that unit root tests cannot capture the selective memory of a system with hysteresis. For that, hysteresis in economic time series data is modeled using the Preisach model. We test the explanatory power of the previous unemployment rate on the current unemployment rate using both a hysteretic and non-hysteretic model. We find that the non-hysteretic model is better at explaining current unemployment rates, which suggests hysteresis is not present in the United States unemployment rate.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Hutton, Richard Shane"],"institution":"Virginia Tech","degree_name":"Master of Science","degree_level":"masters","degree_discipline":"Mathematics","degree_department":"Mathematics","school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":["Rogers, Robert C."],"committee_members":["Fritz, Matthew","Borggaard, Jeffrey T."],"year":2009,"date_issued":"2009-05-08","date_published":"2009-05-08","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:19:03Z","subjects":["Hysteresis","Preisach Model","Stationarity","Unit Root"],"languages":[],"rights":["In Copyright"],"rights_urls":["http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/"],"identifier_entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.other","label":"Dc Identifier Other","values":["etd-05112009-172919"],"render_values":[{"text":"etd-05112009-172919","href":null,"code":true}]}]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10919/32595","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.committeechair","label":"Committee Chair","values":["Rogers, Robert C."]},{"key":"dc:contributor.committeemember","label":"Committee Member","values":["Fritz, Matthew","Borggaard, Jeffrey T."]},{"key":"dc:contributor.department","label":"Department","values":["Mathematics"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Hutton, Richard Shane"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2014-03-14T20:36:20Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2014-03-14T20:36:20Z","2009-05-29"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2009-05-08"]},{"key":"dc:publisher","label":"Institution","values":["Virginia Tech"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Thesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Mathematics"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["masters"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["Master of Science"]},{"key":"thesis:institution_name","label":"Thesis Institution Name","values":["Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["Hysteresis","Preisach Model","Stationarity","Unit Root"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["In Copyright"]},{"key":"dc:rights.uri","label":"Rights URI","values":["http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.other","label":"Dc Identifier Other","values":["etd-05112009-172919"]},{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/10919/32595"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["A system with hysteresis is one that exhibits path dependent but rate independent memory. Hysteresis can be observed physically through the magnetization of a ferromagnetic material. In order to mathematically describe systems with hysteresis, we use the Preisach model. A discussion of the Preisach model is given as well as a method for computing the hysteretic transformation of an input variable. The focus of this paper is hysteresis in economics, namely, unemployment. We consider essential time series techniques for analyzing time series data, i.e. unit root testing for stationarity. However, we point out problems in modeling hysteresis with these techniques and argue that unit root tests cannot capture the selective memory of a system with hysteresis. For that, hysteresis in economic time series data is modeled using the Preisach model. We test the explanatory power of the previous unemployment rate on the current unemployment rate using both a hysteretic and non-hysteretic model. We find that the non-hysteretic model is better at explaining current unemployment rates, which suggests hysteresis is not present in the United States unemployment rate."]},{"key":"dc:description.degree","label":"Dc Description Degree","values":["Master of Science"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Modeling the United States Unemployment Rate with the Preisach Model of Hysteresis"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.committeechair":["Rogers, Robert C."],"dc:contributor.committeemember":["Fritz, Matthew","Borggaard, Jeffrey T."],"dc:contributor.department":["Mathematics"],"dc:creator":["Hutton, Richard Shane"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2014-03-14T20:36:20Z"],"dc:date.available":["2014-03-14T20:36:20Z","2009-05-29"],"dc:date.issued":["2009-05-08"],"dc:description.abstract":["A system with hysteresis is one that exhibits path dependent but rate independent memory. Hysteresis can be observed physically through the magnetization of a ferromagnetic material. In order to mathematically describe systems with hysteresis, we use the Preisach model. A discussion of the Preisach model is given as well as a method for computing the hysteretic transformation of an input variable. The focus of this paper is hysteresis in economics, namely, unemployment. We consider essential time series techniques for analyzing time series data, i.e. unit root testing for stationarity. However, we point out problems in modeling hysteresis with these techniques and argue that unit root tests cannot capture the selective memory of a system with hysteresis. For that, hysteresis in economic time series data is modeled using the Preisach model. We test the explanatory power of the previous unemployment rate on the current unemployment rate using both a hysteretic and non-hysteretic model. We find that the non-hysteretic model is better at explaining current unemployment rates, which suggests hysteresis is not present in the United States unemployment rate."],"dc:description.degree":["Master of Science"],"dc:identifier.other":["etd-05112009-172919"],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/10919/32595"],"dc:publisher":["Virginia Tech"],"dc:rights":["In Copyright"],"dc:rights.uri":["http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/"],"dc:subject":["Hysteresis","Preisach Model","Stationarity","Unit Root"],"dc:title":["Modeling the United States Unemployment Rate with the Preisach Model of Hysteresis"],"dc:type":["Thesis"],"thesis:degree_discipline":["Mathematics"],"thesis:degree_level":["masters"],"thesis:degree_name":["Master of Science"],"thesis:institution_name":["Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:19:03Z"}