Cooperative Prediction and Planning Under Uncertainty for Autonomous Robots

Autonomous robots are set to become ubiquitous in the future, with applications ranging from autonomous cars to assistive household robots. These systems must operate in close proximity of dynamic and static objects, including humans and other non-autonomous systems, adding complexity to their decision-making processes. The behaviour of such objects is often stochastic and hard to predict. Making robust decisions under such uncertain scenarios can be challenging for these autonomous robots. In the past, researchers have used deterministic approach to predict the motion of surrounding objects. However, these approaches can be over-confident and do not capture the stochastic behaviour of surrounding objects necessary for safe decision-making. In this dissertation, we show the importance of probabilistic prediction of surrounding dynamic objects and their incorporation into planning for safety-critical decision making. We utilise Bayesian inference models such as Monte Carlo dropout and deep ensemble to probabilistically predict the motion of surrounding objects. Our probabilistic trajectory forecasting model showed improvement over standard deterministic approaches and could handle adverse scenarios such as sensor noise and occlusion during prediction. The uncertainty-inclusive prediction of surrounding objects has been incorporated into planning. The inclusion of predicted states of surrounding objects with associated uncertainty enables the robot make proactive decisions while avoiding collisions.

Name thesis:degree_name

Doctor of Philosophy

Level thesis:degree_level

doctoral

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Mechanical Engineering

Department dc:contributor.department

Mechanical Engineering

Grantor dc:publisher

Virginia Tech

Year dc:date.issued

2024

Author dc:creator

• Nayak, Anshul Abhijit

Chair dc:contributor.committeechair

• Eskandarian, Azim

Committee members dc:contributor.committeemember

• Doan, Thinh Thanh
• Acar, Pinar
• Losey, Dylan Patrick

• Trajectory Prediction
• Planning
• Uncertainty Quantification
• Cooperative Perception

Statement dc:rights

• Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/4.0/

Language dc:language.iso

en

Dc Identifier Other

vt_gsexam:41652

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/121330