Consistency and Uniform Bounds for Heteroscedastic Simulation Metamodeling and Their Applications

Heteroscedastic metamodeling has gained popularity as an effective tool for analyzing and optimizing complex stochastic systems. A heteroscedastic metamodel provides an accurate approximation of the input-output relationship implied by a stochastic simulation experiment whose output is subject to input-dependent noise variance. Several challenges remain unsolved in this field. First, in-depth investigations into the consistency of heteroscedastic metamodeling techniques, particularly from the sequential prediction perspective, are lacking. Second, sequential heteroscedastic metamodel-based level-set estimation (LSE) methods are scarce. Third, the increasingly high computational cost required by heteroscedastic Gaussian process-based LSE methods in the sequential sampling setting is a concern. Additionally, when constructing a valid uniform bound for a heteroscedastic metamodel, the impact of noise variance estimation is not adequately addressed. This dissertation aims to tackle these challenges and provide promising solutions. First, we investigate the information consistency of a widely used heteroscedastic metamodeling technique, stochastic kriging (SK). Second, we propose SK-based LSE methods leveraging novel uniform bounds for input-point classification. Moreover, we incorporate the Nystrom approximation and a principled budget allocation scheme to improve the computational efficiency of SK-based LSE methods. Lastly, we investigate empirical uniform bounds that take into account the impact of noise variance estimation, ensuring an adequate coverage capability.

Name thesis:degree_name

Doctor of Philosophy

Level thesis:degree_level

doctoral

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Industrial and Systems Engineering

Department dc:contributor.department

Industrial and Systems Engineering

Grantor dc:publisher

Virginia Tech

Year dc:date.issued

2023

Author dc:creator

• Zhang, Yutong

Chair dc:contributor.committeechair

• Chen, Xi

Committee members dc:contributor.committeemember

• Yue, Xiaowei
• Taaffe, Michael R.
• Wan, Hong

• Consistency
• Heteroscedastic Metamodeling
• Level-set Estimation
• Sequential Sampling
• Uniform Confidence Bounds

Statement dc:rights

• In Copyright

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Language dc:language.iso

en

Dc Identifier Other

vt_gsexam:38380

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/116212