{"id":{"repo_id":"vt","oai_identifier":"oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/102350"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/vt/oai:vtechworks.lib.vt.edu:10919/102350","repository":{"repo_id":"vt","name":"Virginia Tech","base_url":"https://vtechworks.lib.vt.edu/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"To What Extent Do Ride-Hailing Services Replace Public Transit? A Novel Geospatial, Real-Time Approach Using Ride-Hailing Trips in Chicago","abstract":"Existing literature on the relationship between ridehailing (RH) and transit services is limited to empirical studies that rely on self-reported answers and lack spatial and temporal contexts. To fill this gap, the research takes a novel approach that uses real-time geospatial analyzes. Using this approach, we estimate the extent to which ride-hailing services have contributed to the recent decline in public transit ridership. With source data on ridehailing trips in Chicago, Illinois, we computed the real-time transit-equivalent trip for the 7,949,902 ridehailing trips in June 2019; the sheer size of this sample is incomparable to the samples studied in existing literature. An existing Multinomial Nested Logit Model was used to determine the probability of a ridehailer selecting a transit alternative to serve the specific origin-destination pair, P(Transit|CTA) . The study found that 31% of RH trips are replaceable, 61% are not replaceable, and 8% lie within the buffer zone. We measured the robustness of this probability using a parametric sensitivity analysis, and performed a two-tailed t-test, with a 95% confidence interval. In combination with a Summation of Probabilities, the results indicate that the total travel time for a transit trip has the greatest influence on the probability of using transit, whereas the airport pass price has the least influence. Further, the walk time, number of stops in the origin and destination census tracts, and household income also have significant impacts on the probability of using transit. Lastly, we performed a Time Value Analysis to explore the cost and trip duration difference between RH trips and their transit-equivalent trips on the probability of switching to transit. The findings demonstrated that approximately 90% of RH trips taken had a transit-equivalent trip that was less expensive, but slower. The main contribution of this study is its thorough approach and fine-tuned series of real-time spatial analyzes that investigate the replaceability of RH trips for public transit. The results and discussion intend to provide perspective derived from real trips and encourage public transit agencies to look into possible opportunities to collaborate with ridehailing companies. Moreover, the methodologies introduced can be used by transit agencies to internally evaluate opportunities and redundancies in services. Lastly, we hope that this effort provides proof of the research benefits associated with the recording and release of ridehailing data.","abstract_html":"Existing literature on the relationship between ridehailing (RH) and transit services is limited to empirical studies that rely on self-reported answers and lack spatial and temporal contexts. To fill this gap, the research takes a novel approach that uses real-time geospatial analyzes. Using this approach, we estimate the extent to which ride-hailing services have contributed to the recent decline in public transit ridership. With source data on ridehailing trips in Chicago, Illinois, we computed the real-time transit-equivalent trip for the 7,949,902 ridehailing trips in June 2019; the sheer size of this sample is incomparable to the samples studied in existing literature. An existing Multinomial Nested Logit Model was used to determine the probability of a ridehailer selecting a transit alternative to serve the specific origin-destination pair, P(Transit|CTA) . The study found that 31% of RH trips are replaceable, 61% are not replaceable, and 8% lie within the buffer zone. We measured the robustness of this probability using a parametric sensitivity analysis, and performed a two-tailed t-test, with a 95% confidence interval. In combination with a Summation of Probabilities, the results indicate that the total travel time for a transit trip has the greatest influence on the probability of using transit, whereas the airport pass price has the least influence. Further, the walk time, number of stops in the origin and destination census tracts, and household income also have significant impacts on the probability of using transit. Lastly, we performed a Time Value Analysis to explore the cost and trip duration difference between RH trips and their transit-equivalent trips on the probability of switching to transit. The findings demonstrated that approximately 90% of RH trips taken had a transit-equivalent trip that was less expensive, but slower. The main contribution of this study is its thorough approach and fine-tuned series of real-time spatial analyzes that investigate the replaceability of RH trips for public transit. The results and discussion intend to provide perspective derived from real trips and encourage public transit agencies to look into possible opportunities to collaborate with ridehailing companies. Moreover, the methodologies introduced can be used by transit agencies to internally evaluate opportunities and redundancies in services. Lastly, we hope that this effort provides proof of the research benefits associated with the recording and release of ridehailing data.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Breuer, Helena Kathryn"],"institution":"Virginia Tech","degree_name":"Master of Science","degree_level":"masters","degree_discipline":"Civil Engineering","degree_department":"Civil and Environmental Engineering","school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":["Rakha, Hesham A."],"committee_members":["Heaslip, Kevin Patrick","Du, Jianhe"],"year":2021,"date_issued":"2021-02-11","date_published":"2021-02-11","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:20:40Z","subjects":["ride-hailing","ridesharing","public transit","Uber","Lyft","replacement","utility"],"languages":["en"],"rights":["In Copyright"],"rights_urls":["http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/"],"identifier_entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.other","label":"Dc Identifier Other","values":["vt_gsexam:27549"],"render_values":[{"text":"vt_gsexam:27549","href":null,"code":true}]}]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/10919/102350","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.committeechair","label":"Committee Chair","values":["Rakha, Hesham A."]},{"key":"dc:contributor.committeemember","label":"Committee Member","values":["Heaslip, Kevin Patrick","Du, Jianhe"]},{"key":"dc:contributor.department","label":"Department","values":["Civil and Environmental Engineering"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Breuer, Helena Kathryn"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2021-02-12T09:00:26Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2021-02-12T09:00:26Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2021-02-11"]},{"key":"dc:publisher","label":"Institution","values":["Virginia Tech"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Thesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Civil Engineering"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["masters"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["Master of Science"]},{"key":"thesis:institution_name","label":"Thesis Institution Name","values":["Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["ride-hailing","ridesharing","public transit","Uber","Lyft","replacement","utility"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language.iso","label":"Language (ISO)","values":["en"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["In Copyright"]},{"key":"dc:rights.uri","label":"Rights URI","values":["http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.other","label":"Dc Identifier Other","values":["vt_gsexam:27549"]},{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/10919/102350"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["Existing literature on the relationship between ridehailing (RH) and transit services is limited to empirical studies that rely on self-reported answers and lack spatial and temporal contexts. To fill this gap, the research takes a novel approach that uses real-time geospatial analyzes. Using this approach, we estimate the extent to which ride-hailing services have contributed to the recent decline in public transit ridership. With source data on ridehailing trips in Chicago, Illinois, we computed the real-time transit-equivalent trip for the 7,949,902 ridehailing trips in June 2019; the sheer size of this sample is incomparable to the samples studied in existing literature. An existing Multinomial Nested Logit Model was used to determine the probability of a ridehailer selecting a transit alternative to serve the specific origin-destination pair, P(Transit|CTA) . The study found that 31% of RH trips are replaceable, 61% are not replaceable, and 8% lie within the buffer zone. We measured the robustness of this probability using a parametric sensitivity analysis, and performed a two-tailed t-test, with a 95% confidence interval. In combination with a Summation of Probabilities, the results indicate that the total travel time for a transit trip has the greatest influence on the probability of using transit, whereas the airport pass price has the least influence. Further, the walk time, number of stops in the origin and destination census tracts, and household income also have significant impacts on the probability of using transit. Lastly, we performed a Time Value Analysis to explore the cost and trip duration difference between RH trips and their transit-equivalent trips on the probability of switching to transit. The findings demonstrated that approximately 90% of RH trips taken had a transit-equivalent trip that was less expensive, but slower. The main contribution of this study is its thorough approach and fine-tuned series of real-time spatial analyzes that investigate the replaceability of RH trips for public transit. The results and discussion intend to provide perspective derived from real trips and encourage public transit agencies to look into possible opportunities to collaborate with ridehailing companies. Moreover, the methodologies introduced can be used by transit agencies to internally evaluate opportunities and redundancies in services. Lastly, we hope that this effort provides proof of the research benefits associated with the recording and release of ridehailing data."]},{"key":"dc:description.abstractgeneral","label":"General Abstract","values":["Existing literature on the relationship between ridehailing (RH) and transit services is limited to empirical studies that rely on self-reported answers and lack spatial and temporal contexts. To fill this gap, the research takes a novel approach that uses real-time geospatial analyzes. Using this approach, we estimated the extent to which ride-hailing services have contributed to the recent decline in public transit ridership. With source data on ridehailing trips in Chicago, Illinois, we computed the real-time transit-equivalent trip for the 7,949,902 ridehailing trips in June 2019; the sheer size of this sample is incomparable to the samples studied in existing literature. An existing Multinomial Nested Logit Model was used to determine the probability of a ridehailer selecting a transit alternative to serve the specific origin-destination pair, P(Transit|CTA) . The study found that 31% of RH trips are replaceable, 61% are not replaceable, and 8% lie within the buffer zone. We measured the robustness of this probability using a parametric sensitivity analysis, and performed a two-tailed t-test, with a 95% confidence interval. In combination with a Summation of Probabilities, the results indicate that the total travel time for a transit trip has the greatest influence on the probability of using transit, whereas the airport pass price has the least influence. Further, the walk time, number of stops in the origin and destination census tracts, and household income also have significant impacts on the probability of using transit. Lastly, we performed a Time Value Analysis to explore the cost and trip duration difference between RH trips and their transit-equivalent trips on the probability of switching to transit. The findings demonstrated that approximately 90% of RH trips taken had a transit-equivalent trip that was less expensive, but slower. The main contribution of this study is its thorough approach and fine-tuned series of real-time spatial analyzes that investigate the replaceability of RH trips for public transit. The results and discussion intend to provide perspective derived from real trips and encourage public transit agencies to look into possible opportunities to collaborate with ridehailing companies. Moreover, the methodologies introduced can be used by transit agencies to internally evaluate opportunities and redundancies in services. Lastly, we hope that this effort provides proof of the research benefits associated with the recording and release of ridehailing data."]},{"key":"dc:description.degree","label":"Dc Description Degree","values":["Master of Science"]},{"key":"dc:format.medium","label":"Dc Format Medium","values":["ETD"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["To What Extent Do Ride-Hailing Services Replace Public Transit? A Novel Geospatial, Real-Time Approach Using Ride-Hailing Trips in Chicago"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.committeechair":["Rakha, Hesham A."],"dc:contributor.committeemember":["Heaslip, Kevin Patrick","Du, Jianhe"],"dc:contributor.department":["Civil and Environmental Engineering"],"dc:creator":["Breuer, Helena Kathryn"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2021-02-12T09:00:26Z"],"dc:date.available":["2021-02-12T09:00:26Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2021-02-11"],"dc:description.abstract":["Existing literature on the relationship between ridehailing (RH) and transit services is limited to empirical studies that rely on self-reported answers and lack spatial and temporal contexts. To fill this gap, the research takes a novel approach that uses real-time geospatial analyzes. Using this approach, we estimate the extent to which ride-hailing services have contributed to the recent decline in public transit ridership. With source data on ridehailing trips in Chicago, Illinois, we computed the real-time transit-equivalent trip for the 7,949,902 ridehailing trips in June 2019; the sheer size of this sample is incomparable to the samples studied in existing literature. An existing Multinomial Nested Logit Model was used to determine the probability of a ridehailer selecting a transit alternative to serve the specific origin-destination pair, P(Transit|CTA) . The study found that 31% of RH trips are replaceable, 61% are not replaceable, and 8% lie within the buffer zone. We measured the robustness of this probability using a parametric sensitivity analysis, and performed a two-tailed t-test, with a 95% confidence interval. In combination with a Summation of Probabilities, the results indicate that the total travel time for a transit trip has the greatest influence on the probability of using transit, whereas the airport pass price has the least influence. Further, the walk time, number of stops in the origin and destination census tracts, and household income also have significant impacts on the probability of using transit. Lastly, we performed a Time Value Analysis to explore the cost and trip duration difference between RH trips and their transit-equivalent trips on the probability of switching to transit. The findings demonstrated that approximately 90% of RH trips taken had a transit-equivalent trip that was less expensive, but slower. The main contribution of this study is its thorough approach and fine-tuned series of real-time spatial analyzes that investigate the replaceability of RH trips for public transit. The results and discussion intend to provide perspective derived from real trips and encourage public transit agencies to look into possible opportunities to collaborate with ridehailing companies. Moreover, the methodologies introduced can be used by transit agencies to internally evaluate opportunities and redundancies in services. Lastly, we hope that this effort provides proof of the research benefits associated with the recording and release of ridehailing data."],"dc:description.abstractgeneral":["Existing literature on the relationship between ridehailing (RH) and transit services is limited to empirical studies that rely on self-reported answers and lack spatial and temporal contexts. To fill this gap, the research takes a novel approach that uses real-time geospatial analyzes. Using this approach, we estimated the extent to which ride-hailing services have contributed to the recent decline in public transit ridership. With source data on ridehailing trips in Chicago, Illinois, we computed the real-time transit-equivalent trip for the 7,949,902 ridehailing trips in June 2019; the sheer size of this sample is incomparable to the samples studied in existing literature. An existing Multinomial Nested Logit Model was used to determine the probability of a ridehailer selecting a transit alternative to serve the specific origin-destination pair, P(Transit|CTA) . The study found that 31% of RH trips are replaceable, 61% are not replaceable, and 8% lie within the buffer zone. We measured the robustness of this probability using a parametric sensitivity analysis, and performed a two-tailed t-test, with a 95% confidence interval. In combination with a Summation of Probabilities, the results indicate that the total travel time for a transit trip has the greatest influence on the probability of using transit, whereas the airport pass price has the least influence. Further, the walk time, number of stops in the origin and destination census tracts, and household income also have significant impacts on the probability of using transit. Lastly, we performed a Time Value Analysis to explore the cost and trip duration difference between RH trips and their transit-equivalent trips on the probability of switching to transit. The findings demonstrated that approximately 90% of RH trips taken had a transit-equivalent trip that was less expensive, but slower. The main contribution of this study is its thorough approach and fine-tuned series of real-time spatial analyzes that investigate the replaceability of RH trips for public transit. The results and discussion intend to provide perspective derived from real trips and encourage public transit agencies to look into possible opportunities to collaborate with ridehailing companies. Moreover, the methodologies introduced can be used by transit agencies to internally evaluate opportunities and redundancies in services. Lastly, we hope that this effort provides proof of the research benefits associated with the recording and release of ridehailing data."],"dc:description.degree":["Master of Science"],"dc:format.medium":["ETD"],"dc:identifier.other":["vt_gsexam:27549"],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/10919/102350"],"dc:language.iso":["en"],"dc:publisher":["Virginia Tech"],"dc:rights":["In Copyright"],"dc:rights.uri":["http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/"],"dc:subject":["ride-hailing","ridesharing","public transit","Uber","Lyft","replacement","utility"],"dc:title":["To What Extent Do Ride-Hailing Services Replace Public Transit? A Novel Geospatial, Real-Time Approach Using Ride-Hailing Trips in Chicago"],"dc:type":["Thesis"],"thesis:degree_discipline":["Civil Engineering"],"thesis:degree_level":["masters"],"thesis:degree_name":["Master of Science"],"thesis:institution_name":["Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:20:40Z"}