Rinkėjų apsisprendimo (ne)balsuoti paralelių paieška Baltijos šalių, Lenkijos ir Ukrainos kontekste /

Voter turnout is without a doubt one of the most heavily scrutinized themes in the political science field. It is especially prominent in the United States where regardless of the strong democratic tradition voter turnout is still famously low. However, in Europe and more importantly in the Eastern European states, voter turnout research is not as frequent. Political scientists tend to agree that the voters in post-soviet democratic systems have quite a passive approach towards political participation, but their voting specificity is still a relevant subject that generally lacks comprehensive and detailed research. The focus of this bachelor thesis is the voter turnout causality in the Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine. These countries share a lot of similarities. First of all, they are all linked by their history and state building processes. Secondly, they have very similar voter turnout statistics. Thirdly, their voters share mistrust in political institutions and dissatisfaction with the political system as a whole. These parallels represent a certain bond that connects the voters of Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Ukraine. It shows that their voting causality might be determined by the same variables. Proving this point is the main objective of this thesis. The independent variables have been chosen using the fundamental voter turnout theories: resource, rational choice, mobilization and psychological theory. Causal relationships between the dependent and the independent variables were discovered using binomial logistic regression. An individual regression model was created for every country and then the models were compared to find the common voter turnout causes in the Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine. The binomial logistic regression analysis revealed that in Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Ukraine voters are more likely to show up to vote if they are older, have a higher education, feel closer to one of the national political parties and are interested in politics. These 4 variables are very significant in all of the analyzed countries. However, age, education, party identification and political interest are one of the most commonly used variables in the voter turnout research. So based on these aspects the Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine are not that different from other consolidated democracies. But that doesn’t mean that their voter turnout causality doesn’t stand out from other democratic systems. The first cleavage can be attributed to the influence of voter’s trust in political institutions. This factor usually isn’t relevant or has very little effect on the voter turnout in older democracies, so the fact that it matters to the voters of the states analyzed in this paper, shows that their electoral behavior still differs from their Western counterparts. A second aspect that differentiates these countries from other democratic systems is the effect of religion. Religion is significant in Lithuania, Latvia and Ukraine. This variable also isn’t considered to be a viable voter turnout predictor in most consolidated democracies. Lastly, the influence of socio-economic status, or lack thereof, marks another important distinction between the Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine. Profession and income are often included in voter turnout research when analyzing Western democracies, but these variables have no effect in the Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine. The objective of this thesis was to find out whether or not Lithuania, Latvia, Estonia, Poland and Ukraine share the same voter turnout causality determinants. After reviewing the analysis results, it can be concluded that these states are definitely connected by similar voting behavior characteristics. Although some of the variables that were significant in these countries are also important in older democracies, there are enough differences, to claim that the Baltic States, Poland and Ukraine have a mutual and distinct voter turnout causality.

Grantor dc:publisher

Institutional Repository of Vilnius University

Year dc:date

2016

Author dc:creator

• Saladžius, Aurimas,

Contributors dc:contributor

• Jastramskis, Mažvydas

Statement dc:rights

• info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

Language dc:language

lit

Repository record dc:identifier

https://repository.vu.lt/VU:ELABAETD35558291&prefLang=en_US

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:vu.lt:elaba:35558291