Žaliavų kainoms įtaką darančių veiksnių analizė /

The main purpose of this work is to determine main factors that may influence commodity price volatility, group them and do an independent analysis of representative data sets vs Food price index Base Metal price index (from International Monetary Fund), to confirm or prove negative possibility to predict future commodity prices for selected groups. The work consists of three main parts: the analysis of literature, the research and its results, conclusion and recommendations. Literature analysis reviewed the available research data from scientific papers and other sources on commodity price volatility and determination factors. After the literature analysis, the author has carried out the study, quantitative analysis (correlation and regression) for representative data sets (world yearly GDP, world currency rates vs dollar, Political stability index) vs Food commodity ad Base metal price The main purpose of the research – to confirm, based on the results of performed analysis, suitable variables for future Food and Base metal commodity prices. The performed research suggested future possibilities of predictions based on GDP (Food, Euro zone), Currency rate (Food, based on Swiss Frank and China Juan). However research did not find a reliable source for the Base Metal commodity price predictions, further analysis and better variable options to solve this is needed. The conclusions and recommendations summarize the main concepts of literature analysis as well as the results of the performed research. The author believes that the results of the study could give useful guidelines to the companies that are going to implement additional data sources for Commodity price predictions.

Grantor dc:publisher

Institutional Repository of Vilnius University

Year dc:date

2024

Author dc:creator

• Žlabienė, Justina,

Statement dc:rights

• info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

Language dc:language

lit

Repository record dc:identifier

https://repository.vu.lt/VU:ELABAETD210583931&prefLang=en_US

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:vu.lt:elaba:210583931