Opozicinių koalicijų sėkmės konkurencinio autoritarizmo rinkimuose priežastys /

This bachelor's thesis explores the reasons that might explain the success of pre-electoral coalitions formed by opposition parties in competitive authoritarian elections. Previous research has focused more on the aspects of opposition coalition formation and the impact of such coalitions on regime democratisation. The determinants of success in elections are often intuitive or drawn from single case or small sample studies. Moreover, contrary to what has been argued before, the formation of an opposition coalition is not a guarantee of electoral victory. Building on the regime's vulnerability theory, this research suggests that the victory of an opposition coalition is more likely when the incumbent's party is less cohesive, i.e., the ruling elite displays more internal disagreements. A quantitative regression analysis of elections in competitive authoritarian regimes that featured an opposition coalition between 1990 and 2020 found a predicted impact of this variable on the electoral success of opposition coalitions and also discovered a significant contribution of a more vibrant civil society to electoral turnover.

Grantor dc:publisher

Institutional Repository of Vilnius University

Year dc:date

2024

Author dc:creator

• Putrimas, Benas,

Statement dc:rights

• info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

Language dc:language

lit

Repository record dc:identifier

https://repository.vu.lt/VU:ELABAETD210583560&prefLang=en_US

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:vu.lt:elaba:210583560