Bankroto tikimybės analizė /

Nowadays, more and more companies are facing the problem of insolvency, so bankruptcy has already became a normal market phenomenon. As economic conditions change, markets expand rapidly and competitiveness increase which results in higher numbers of bankruptcy risk. Assessing and managing the probability of bankruptcy is one of the most relevant ways to avoid financial difficulties in a company. Bankruptcy has many negative consequences, such as rising unemployment, deteriorating economic situation in the country and so on. On the other hand, bankruptcy can also have a positive effect, as companies look for new ways to improve their activities and inefficient players are naturally removed from the market, competition is encouraged. Bankruptcy of a company is affected by external and internal factors such as the economic slowdown, the COVID-19 pandemic, instability of the country’s tax system, lack of organizational performance and internal control, and so on. Consistent financial risk assessment using bankruptcy forecasting models and analyzing a company's financial absolute and relative solvency and profitability ratios can help for a company identify the risk of bankruptcy in a timely manner. The aim of the work is to analyze and evaluate the financial condition of Novaturas in order to draw a conclusion about the probability of bankruptcy of the company. Research tasks: 1. To perform the analysis of financial indicators of Novaturas company; 2. Calculate and analyze the company's relative solvency and profitability ratios; 3. To examine the probability of bankruptcy in Novaturas after applying forecasting models. Summarizing results of the empirical research, the financial absolute and relative indicators of AB „Novaturas” for the periods of 2016-2019 were positive and the company was profitable. In 2020, after COVID-19 pandemic wave, the financial indicators of Novaturas fell sharply, the company incurred 4.990 million net loss in euros and profitability indicators became negative. Bankruptcy forecasting models have shown that in 2020 the financial situation of Novaturas is very poor and the probability of bankruptcy is very high. This decline was influenced by the company's negative profit in 2020 and other sharply deteriorating financial indicators. It is very important to take measures to manage this risk of bankruptcy and prepare properly for the summer season of 2021 and, if the epidemiological situation allows, to improve the company's competitiveness by offering travelers the widest possible range of destinations to meet their expectations.

Grantor dc:publisher

Institutional Repository of Vilnius University

Year dc:date

2021

Author dc:creator

• Važnevičiūtė, Rūta,

Statement dc:rights

• info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess

Language dc:language

lit

Repository record dc:identifier

https://repository.vu.lt/VU:ELABAETD193231065&prefLang=en_US

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:vu.lt:elaba:193231065