{"id":{"repo_id":"uwo","oai_identifier":"oai:uwo.scholaris.ca:20.500.14721/30936"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/uwo/oai:uwo.scholaris.ca:20.500.14721/30936","repository":{"repo_id":"uwo","name":"Western University","base_url":"https://uwo.scholaris.ca/server/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Assessment of the impacts of climate change, land cover transition, and internal climate variability on the hydrology of a forested watershed","abstract":"In this study, the impacts of climate and land cover (LC) changes on the hydrologic processes of the Batchawana watershed in Central Ontario are assessed. Batchawana is a snow-dominated forested watershed with coniferous, deciduous and mixed trees and numerous small lakes. A semi-distributed hydrological model, based on the Raven hydrological framework, is calibrated and validated using ground-based observations for 1981-2001 and 2002-2011, respectively. Eight downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and three large ensembles (50 members) of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations, under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, are used to characterize the role of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability in projected changes of watershed runoff. Analyses are performed in the historical and future time frames corresponding to global mean temperature increases of 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 and 4 °C compared to the preindustrial (1851-1900) level. The historical trends of land cover changes are extended to develop future LC scenarios including changes from coniferous to deciduous and mixed forests. Besides, to assess the influence of lakes four scenarios are investigated considering 25% lake shrinkage increments. Deciduous and mixed tree cover result in higher flow rates during fall compared to the base model with partial coniferous tree cover. A decrease in the area of lakes can decrease the streamflow in all seasons. Responding to climate change, the snowpack is projected to decline in the future indicating a shift from nival to a rainfall-dominated hydrological regime in a warmer climate. Further, the mean annual streamflow is projected to increase while the annual maximum flow is expected to decline. Analysis of Internal Variability indicates that human-induced climate change, compared with natural variability, will dominate the hydrological changes in the region during the last decade of the 21st century. Overall, the results show significant changes in the hydrological processes of this forested watershed associated with both climate and land cover changes. This will affect the flood and drought hazards and consequently endanger the agriculture, wood industry and lives of indigenous residents of Batchawana.","abstract_html":"In this study, the impacts of climate and land cover (LC) changes on the hydrologic processes of the Batchawana watershed in Central Ontario are assessed. Batchawana is a snow-dominated forested watershed with coniferous, deciduous and mixed trees and numerous small lakes. A semi-distributed hydrological model, based on the Raven hydrological framework, is calibrated and validated using ground-based observations for 1981-2001 and 2002-2011, respectively. Eight downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and three large ensembles (50 members) of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations, under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, are used to characterize the role of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability in projected changes of watershed runoff. Analyses are performed in the historical and future time frames corresponding to global mean temperature increases of 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 and 4 °C compared to the preindustrial (1851-1900) level. The historical trends of land cover changes are extended to develop future LC scenarios including changes from coniferous to deciduous and mixed forests. Besides, to assess the influence of lakes four scenarios are investigated considering 25% lake shrinkage increments. Deciduous and mixed tree cover result in higher flow rates during fall compared to the base model with partial coniferous tree cover. A decrease in the area of lakes can decrease the streamflow in all seasons. Responding to climate change, the snowpack is projected to decline in the future indicating a shift from nival to a rainfall-dominated hydrological regime in a warmer climate. Further, the mean annual streamflow is projected to increase while the annual maximum flow is expected to decline. Analysis of Internal Variability indicates that human-induced climate change, compared with natural variability, will dominate the hydrological changes in the region during the last decade of the 21st century. Overall, the results show significant changes in the hydrological processes of this forested watershed associated with both climate and land cover changes. This will affect the flood and drought hazards and consequently endanger the agriculture, wood industry and lives of indigenous residents of Batchawana.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Mehdipour, Vahid"],"institution":"The University of Western Ontario","degree_name":"M Eng Sci","degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":"Civil and Environmental Engineering","degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Najafi, M. Reza"],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2021,"date_issued":"2021-03-15","date_published":"2021-03-15","updated_at":"2026-07-27T21:56:16Z","subjects":["Hydrological Modeling","Batchawana Watershed","Climate Change","Forest Hydrology","Satellite Imagery","Internal Climate Variability"],"languages":["en_ca"],"rights":[],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14721/30936","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Najafi, M. 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In citing or referring to this thesis, use the DOI or handle from this page instead. Sample citation: Author name, \"Thesis title.\" (Year). Western University Open Repository. https://doi.org/10.71858/123456."]},{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["In this study, the impacts of climate and land cover (LC) changes on the hydrologic processes of the Batchawana watershed in Central Ontario are assessed. Batchawana is a snow-dominated forested watershed with coniferous, deciduous and mixed trees and numerous small lakes. A semi-distributed hydrological model, based on the Raven hydrological framework, is calibrated and validated using ground-based observations for 1981-2001 and 2002-2011, respectively. Eight downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and three large ensembles (50 members) of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations, under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, are used to characterize the role of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability in projected changes of watershed runoff. Analyses are performed in the historical and future time frames corresponding to global mean temperature increases of 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 and 4 °C compared to the preindustrial (1851-1900) level. The historical trends of land cover changes are extended to develop future LC scenarios including changes from coniferous to deciduous and mixed forests. Besides, to assess the influence of lakes four scenarios are investigated considering 25% lake shrinkage increments. Deciduous and mixed tree cover result in higher flow rates during fall compared to the base model with partial coniferous tree cover. A decrease in the area of lakes can decrease the streamflow in all seasons. Responding to climate change, the snowpack is projected to decline in the future indicating a shift from nival to a rainfall-dominated hydrological regime in a warmer climate. Further, the mean annual streamflow is projected to increase while the annual maximum flow is expected to decline. Analysis of Internal Variability indicates that human-induced climate change, compared with natural variability, will dominate the hydrological changes in the region during the last decade of the 21st century. Overall, the results show significant changes in the hydrological processes of this forested watershed associated with both climate and land cover changes. This will affect the flood and drought hazards and consequently endanger the agriculture, wood industry and lives of indigenous residents of Batchawana."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Assessment of the impacts of climate change, land cover transition, and internal climate variability on the hydrology of a forested watershed"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Najafi, M. Reza"],"dc:creator":["Mehdipour, Vahid"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2025-07-10T18:47:40Z"],"dc:date.available":["2025-07-10T18:47:40Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2021-03-15"],"dc:description":["Collaborative Specialization: Environment and Sustainability","The thesis cover page in the PDF document includes references to Western University’s previous institutional repository platform, known as Scholarship@Western, and links to that platform (beginning with ir.lib.uwo.ca). In citing or referring to this thesis, use the DOI or handle from this page instead. Sample citation: Author name, \"Thesis title.\" (Year). Western University Open Repository. https://doi.org/10.71858/123456."],"dc:description.abstract":["In this study, the impacts of climate and land cover (LC) changes on the hydrologic processes of the Batchawana watershed in Central Ontario are assessed. Batchawana is a snow-dominated forested watershed with coniferous, deciduous and mixed trees and numerous small lakes. A semi-distributed hydrological model, based on the Raven hydrological framework, is calibrated and validated using ground-based observations for 1981-2001 and 2002-2011, respectively. Eight downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) and three large ensembles (50 members) of Regional Climate Model (RCM) simulations, under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5, are used to characterize the role of anthropogenic forcing and internal climate variability in projected changes of watershed runoff. Analyses are performed in the historical and future time frames corresponding to global mean temperature increases of 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 3.5 and 4 °C compared to the preindustrial (1851-1900) level. The historical trends of land cover changes are extended to develop future LC scenarios including changes from coniferous to deciduous and mixed forests. Besides, to assess the influence of lakes four scenarios are investigated considering 25% lake shrinkage increments. Deciduous and mixed tree cover result in higher flow rates during fall compared to the base model with partial coniferous tree cover. A decrease in the area of lakes can decrease the streamflow in all seasons. Responding to climate change, the snowpack is projected to decline in the future indicating a shift from nival to a rainfall-dominated hydrological regime in a warmer climate. Further, the mean annual streamflow is projected to increase while the annual maximum flow is expected to decline. Analysis of Internal Variability indicates that human-induced climate change, compared with natural variability, will dominate the hydrological changes in the region during the last decade of the 21st century. Overall, the results show significant changes in the hydrological processes of this forested watershed associated with both climate and land cover changes. This will affect the flood and drought hazards and consequently endanger the agriculture, wood industry and lives of indigenous residents of Batchawana."],"dc:identifier.uri":["https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14721/30936"],"dc:language.iso":["en_ca"],"dc:publisher":["The University of Western Ontario"],"dc:subject":["Hydrological Modeling","Batchawana Watershed","Climate Change","Forest Hydrology","Satellite Imagery","Internal Climate Variability"],"dc:title":["Assessment of the impacts of climate change, land cover transition, and internal climate variability on the hydrology of a forested watershed"],"dc:type":["thesis"],"thesis:degree_discipline":["Civil and Environmental Engineering"],"thesis:degree_name":["M Eng Sci"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-27T21:56:16Z"}