A Systems Approach to Modelling the Effects of Climate Change on Agroforestry: A Case Study in Western Tanzania
type: CreativeWork
description: Climate change is anticipated to have significant effects on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa as the magnitude of weather events increase in severity. Smallholder farmers in western Tanzania are potentially vulnerable to climate change impact as crops rely on precipitation as the only source of water. It is prudent to evaluate different modes of agricultural adaptations, such as agroforestry, that these farmers can easily adopt to improve their resiliency to the effects of climate change. System dynamics modelling is a cost-effective tool to simulate the long-term behaviour of agroforestry systems under future climate conditions. Water, Nutrient, and Light Capture in Agroforestry Systems (WaNuLCAS) is a system dynamics model developed by the World Agroforestry Centre that was selected to investigate long-term bio-physical interactions of maize and Acacia trees. This model was calibrated to data from field research on rotational woodlots conducted in Tabora, Tanzania from 1996 to 2002 by the World Agroforestry Centre. Four sets of experimental simulations were conducted with the WaNuLCAS model to determine the response of the agroforestry system to changes. Firstly, the model was calibrated to the “baseline” field research in Tabora. Secondly, management practices were systematically applied to the baseline to study changes in maize and wood yields and the net present value of the system. Thirdly, changing climatic conditions were applied to the model. The climate change scenarios for this study were produced by selecting a number of global climate models and emission scenarios, downscaling that data, and generating a broad set of futures by means of a stochastic weather generator. The climate variables used in this research were daily precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. The baseline period for observed days was from 1975 to 2005. Mid-term and long-term climate change scenarios were generated for 2035 to 2065 and 2065 to 2095 resp…
abstract: Climate change is anticipated to have significant effects on agricultural production in sub-Saharan Africa as the magnitude of weather events increase in severity. Smallholder farmers in western Tanzania are potentially vulnerable to climate change impact as crops rely on precipitation as the only source of water. It is prudent to evaluate different modes of agricultural adaptations, such as agroforestry, that these farmers can easily adopt to improve their resiliency to the effects of climate change. System dynamics modelling is a cost-effective tool to simulate the long-term behaviour of agroforestry systems under future climate conditions. Water, Nutrient, and Light Capture in Agroforestry Systems (WaNuLCAS) is a system dynamics model developed by the World Agroforestry Centre that was selected to investigate long-term bio-physical interactions of maize and Acacia trees. This model was calibrated to data from field research on rotational woodlots conducted in Tabora, Tanzania from 1996 to 2002 by the World Agroforestry Centre. Four sets of experimental simulations were conducted with the WaNuLCAS model to determine the response of the agroforestry system to changes. Firstly, the model was calibrated to the “baseline” field research in Tabora. Secondly, management practices were systematically applied to the baseline to study changes in maize and wood yields and the net present value of the system. Thirdly, changing climatic conditions were applied to the model. The climate change scenarios for this study were produced by selecting a number of global climate models and emission scenarios, downscaling that data, and generating a broad set of futures by means of a stochastic weather generator. The climate variables used in this research were daily precipitation, maximum temperature and minimum temperature. The baseline period for observed days was from 1975 to 2005. Mid-term and long-term climate change scenarios were generated for 2035 to 2065 and 2065 to 2095 resp…
author: Samuel, Elaine M.
language: en_ca
keywords: climate change, system dynamics modelling, agroforestry, Tanzania, WaNuLCAS
date published: 2016-05-09
date modified: 2026-07-27T21:56:20Z
provider: Western University
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: The University of Western Ontario

PropertyValue
property ID: Handle
value: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.14721/27305