{"id":{"repo_id":"uvic","oai_identifier":"oai:dspace.library.uvic.ca:1828/208"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/uvic/oai:dspace.library.uvic.ca:1828/208","repository":{"repo_id":"uvic","name":"University of Victoria (Canada)","base_url":"https://dspace.library.uvic.ca/server/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"The flow and variability of sea-ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: modelling the past (1950-2004) and the future (2041-2060)","abstract":"Considering the recent losses observed in Arctic sea-ice and the anticipated future warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, sea-ice retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is expected. As most global climate models do not resolve the CAA region, a fine-resolution regional model is developed to provide a sense of possible changes in the CAA sea-ice. This ice-ocean coupled model is forced with atmospheric data for two time-periods. Results from a historical run (1950-2004)are used to validate the model. The model does well in representing observed sea-ice spatial and seasonal variability, but tends to underestimate summertime ice cover. In the future run (2041-2060), wintertime ice concentrations change little, but the summertime ice concentrations decrease by 45%. The ice thickness also decreases, by 17% in the winter, and by 36% in summer. Based on this study, a completely ice-free CAA is unlikely by the year 2050, but the region could support some commercial shipping.","abstract_html":"Considering the recent losses observed in Arctic sea-ice and the anticipated future warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, sea-ice retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is expected. As most global climate models do not resolve the CAA region, a fine-resolution regional model is developed to provide a sense of possible changes in the CAA sea-ice. This ice-ocean coupled model is forced with atmospheric data for two time-periods. Results from a historical run (1950-2004)are used to validate the model. The model does well in representing observed sea-ice spatial and seasonal variability, but tends to underestimate summertime ice cover. In the future run (2041-2060), wintertime ice concentrations change little, but the summertime ice concentrations decrease by 45%. The ice thickness also decreases, by 17% in the winter, and by 36% in summer. Based on this study, a completely ice-free CAA is unlikely by the year 2050, but the region could support some commercial shipping.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Sou, Theressa V."],"institution":null,"degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Flato, Gregory M.","Weaver, Andrew J."],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2007,"date_issued":"2007-08-28T18:56:29Z","date_published":"2007-08-28T18:56:29Z","updated_at":"2026-07-24T05:52:40Z","subjects":["sea-ice","Canadian Arctic"],"languages":["en","English"],"rights":["Available to the World Wide Web"],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/1828/208","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.supervisor","label":"Supervisor","values":["Flato, Gregory M.","Weaver, Andrew J."]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Sou, Theressa V."]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2007-08-28T18:56:29Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2007-08-28T18:56:29Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2007-08-28T18:56:29Z"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Thesis"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["sea-ice","Canadian Arctic"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language","label":"Dc Language","values":["English"]},{"key":"dc:language.iso","label":"Language (ISO)","values":["en"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["Available to the World Wide Web"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/1828/208"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["Considering the recent losses observed in Arctic sea-ice and the anticipated future warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, sea-ice retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is expected. As most global climate models do not resolve the CAA region, a fine-resolution regional model is developed to provide a sense of possible changes in the CAA sea-ice. This ice-ocean coupled model is forced with atmospheric data for two time-periods. Results from a historical run (1950-2004)are used to validate the model. The model does well in representing observed sea-ice spatial and seasonal variability, but tends to underestimate summertime ice cover. In the future run (2041-2060), wintertime ice concentrations change little, but the summertime ice concentrations decrease by 45%. The ice thickness also decreases, by 17% in the winter, and by 36% in summer. Based on this study, a completely ice-free CAA is unlikely by the year 2050, but the region could support some commercial shipping."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["The flow and variability of sea-ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: modelling the past (1950-2004) and the future (2041-2060)"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.supervisor":["Flato, Gregory M.","Weaver, Andrew J."],"dc:creator":["Sou, Theressa V."],"dc:date.accessioned":["2007-08-28T18:56:29Z"],"dc:date.available":["2007-08-28T18:56:29Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2007-08-28T18:56:29Z"],"dc:description.abstract":["Considering the recent losses observed in Arctic sea-ice and the anticipated future warming due to anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, sea-ice retreat in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago (CAA) is expected. As most global climate models do not resolve the CAA region, a fine-resolution regional model is developed to provide a sense of possible changes in the CAA sea-ice. This ice-ocean coupled model is forced with atmospheric data for two time-periods. Results from a historical run (1950-2004)are used to validate the model. The model does well in representing observed sea-ice spatial and seasonal variability, but tends to underestimate summertime ice cover. In the future run (2041-2060), wintertime ice concentrations change little, but the summertime ice concentrations decrease by 45%. The ice thickness also decreases, by 17% in the winter, and by 36% in summer. Based on this study, a completely ice-free CAA is unlikely by the year 2050, but the region could support some commercial shipping."],"dc:identifier.uri":["http://hdl.handle.net/1828/208"],"dc:language":["English"],"dc:language.iso":["en"],"dc:rights":["Available to the World Wide Web"],"dc:subject":["sea-ice","Canadian Arctic"],"dc:title":["The flow and variability of sea-ice in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago: modelling the past (1950-2004) and the future (2041-2060)"],"dc:type":["Thesis"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-24T05:52:40Z"}