Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in hydrological modeling: a case study of South Chickamauga Creek watershed using BASINS/HSPF

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses are crucial for the quality control and application of hydrological models in water resources management. While sensitivity analysis identifies major input parameters affecting model response, uncertainty analysis evaluates the uncertainty in model predictions. In this analysis, a Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) model was developed for simulating surface and sub-surface hydrology, and creek flows in the South Chickamauga Creek Watershed, TN. The HSPF model was calibrated against USGS observed data from January 2013 to December 2017 and was validated for the period January 2018 to October 2019. Parameter Sensitivity analysis using the one-at-a-time (OAT) perturbation method revealed that watershed hydrology was highly sensitive to evapotranspiration and groundwater-related parameters. Uncertainty analysis with Monte Carlo and Latin Hypercube parameter sampling demonstrated the highest uncertainty in extreme flows and least uncertainty in annual runoff predictions. Overall, model output distribution was more uniform and achieved convergence faster with Latin hypercube sampling.

Grantor dc:publisher

University of Tennessee at Chattanooga

Year dc:date.available

2022

Author dc:creator

• Dey, Preyanka

Contributors dc:contributor

• Bathi, Jejal Reddy
• Wu, Weidong; Ghasemi, Arash; Hossain, A.K.M. Azad
• College of Engineering and Computer Science

• Computer programs--Validation
• Hydraulic models

Licence

• http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Language dc:language

English, eng

Repository record dc:identifier

https://scholar.utc.edu/theses/712

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:scholar.utc.edu:theses-1886