There is currently a lack of modeling framework to predict how relative sea-level rise (SLR), combined with restoration activities, affects landscapes of coastal wetlands with uncertainties accounted for at the entire northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). I developed such a modeling framework – Bayesian multi-level models to study the spatial pattern of wetland loss in the NGOM, driven by relative RSLR, vegetation productivity, tidal range, coastal slope, and wave height – all interacting with river-borne sediment availability, indicated by hydrological regimes. These interactions have not been comprehensively investigated before. I further modified this model to assess the efficacy of restoration projects from 1996 to 2005 and predicted wetland loss by 2100 and 2300 under climate change and restoration scenarios (RCP3 and RCP8.5) in coastal Louisiana. The results show that the main biogeophysical factors contributing to wetland areal loss vary by hydrological regime, but relative SLR and wave height are the main drivers in the majority of the hydrological regimes. In addition, vegetation productivity reduces percent wetland loss and this effect is substantial in the medium riverine discharge regimes. In Louisiana coast, breakwater construction and hydrological alteration restoration are more effective restoration methods compared to vegetation planting and marsh creation, and wetland restoration is predicted to reduce wetland loss under high SLR scenarios. I packaged the modeling results and scenarios analysis into a web tool for wider dissemination. The research will facilitate more-informed restoration plans and help enhance resilience of coastal wetlands to SLR.
","abstract_html":"<p>There is currently a lack of modeling framework to predict how relative sea-level rise (SLR), combined with restoration activities, affects landscapes of coastal wetlands with uncertainties accounted for at the entire northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). I developed such a modeling framework – Bayesian multi-level models to study the spatial pattern of wetland loss in the NGOM, driven by relative RSLR, vegetation productivity, tidal range, coastal slope, and wave height – all interacting with river-borne sediment availability, indicated by hydrological regimes. These interactions have not been comprehensively investigated before. I further modified this model to assess the efficacy of restoration projects from 1996 to 2005 and predicted wetland loss by 2100 and 2300 under climate change and restoration scenarios (RCP3 and RCP8.5) in coastal Louisiana. The results show that the main biogeophysical factors contributing to wetland areal loss vary by hydrological regime, but relative SLR and wave height are the main drivers in the majority of the hydrological regimes. In addition, vegetation productivity reduces percent wetland loss and this effect is substantial in the medium riverine discharge regimes. In Louisiana coast, breakwater construction and hydrological alteration restoration are more effective restoration methods compared to vegetation planting and marsh creation, and wetland restoration is predicted to reduce wetland loss under high SLR scenarios. I packaged the modeling results and scenarios analysis into a web tool for wider dissemination. The research will facilitate more-informed restoration plans and help enhance resilience of coastal wetlands to SLR.</p>","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Hardy, Tyler"],"institution":null,"degree_name":"Master of Science (MS)","degree_level":"Masters Thesis","degree_discipline":"Coastal Sciences, Gulf Coast Research Laboratory","degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":["Wei Wu","Robert Leaf","Daniel Petrolia"],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2018,"date_issued":"2018-08-01T07:00:00Z","date_published":"2018-08-01T07:00:00Z","updated_at":"2026-07-24T05:44:50Z","subjects":["wetlands","sea-level rise","climate change","restoration","Biology","Geomorphology","Other Life Sciences","Statistical Models","Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology"],"languages":[],"rights":[],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"https://aquila.usm.edu/masters_theses/370","outbound_label":"Repository record","outbound_source":"dc:identifier"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor","label":"Contributor","values":["Wei Wu","Robert Leaf","Daniel Petrolia"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Hardy, Tyler"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2018-06-22T07:00:00Z"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Coastal Sciences, Gulf Coast Research Laboratory"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["Masters Thesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["Master of Science (MS)"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["wetlands","sea-level rise","climate change","restoration","Biology","Geomorphology","Other Life Sciences","Statistical Models","Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["https://aquila.usm.edu/masters_theses/370"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["There is currently a lack of modeling framework to predict how relative sea-level rise (SLR), combined with restoration activities, affects landscapes of coastal wetlands with uncertainties accounted for at the entire northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). I developed such a modeling framework – Bayesian multi-level models to study the spatial pattern of wetland loss in the NGOM, driven by relative RSLR, vegetation productivity, tidal range, coastal slope, and wave height – all interacting with river-borne sediment availability, indicated by hydrological regimes. These interactions have not been comprehensively investigated before. I further modified this model to assess the efficacy of restoration projects from 1996 to 2005 and predicted wetland loss by 2100 and 2300 under climate change and restoration scenarios (RCP3 and RCP8.5) in coastal Louisiana. The results show that the main biogeophysical factors contributing to wetland areal loss vary by hydrological regime, but relative SLR and wave height are the main drivers in the majority of the hydrological regimes. In addition, vegetation productivity reduces percent wetland loss and this effect is substantial in the medium riverine discharge regimes. In Louisiana coast, breakwater construction and hydrological alteration restoration are more effective restoration methods compared to vegetation planting and marsh creation, and wetland restoration is predicted to reduce wetland loss under high SLR scenarios. I packaged the modeling results and scenarios analysis into a web tool for wider dissemination. The research will facilitate more-informed restoration plans and help enhance resilience of coastal wetlands to SLR.
"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Coastal Wetland Dynamics Under Sea-level Rise and Wetland Restoration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico using Bayesian Multilevel Models and a Web Tool"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor":["Wei Wu","Robert Leaf","Daniel Petrolia"],"dc:creator":["Hardy, Tyler"],"dc:date.available":["2018-06-22T07:00:00Z"],"dc:description.abstract":["There is currently a lack of modeling framework to predict how relative sea-level rise (SLR), combined with restoration activities, affects landscapes of coastal wetlands with uncertainties accounted for at the entire northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). I developed such a modeling framework – Bayesian multi-level models to study the spatial pattern of wetland loss in the NGOM, driven by relative RSLR, vegetation productivity, tidal range, coastal slope, and wave height – all interacting with river-borne sediment availability, indicated by hydrological regimes. These interactions have not been comprehensively investigated before. I further modified this model to assess the efficacy of restoration projects from 1996 to 2005 and predicted wetland loss by 2100 and 2300 under climate change and restoration scenarios (RCP3 and RCP8.5) in coastal Louisiana. The results show that the main biogeophysical factors contributing to wetland areal loss vary by hydrological regime, but relative SLR and wave height are the main drivers in the majority of the hydrological regimes. In addition, vegetation productivity reduces percent wetland loss and this effect is substantial in the medium riverine discharge regimes. In Louisiana coast, breakwater construction and hydrological alteration restoration are more effective restoration methods compared to vegetation planting and marsh creation, and wetland restoration is predicted to reduce wetland loss under high SLR scenarios. I packaged the modeling results and scenarios analysis into a web tool for wider dissemination. The research will facilitate more-informed restoration plans and help enhance resilience of coastal wetlands to SLR.
"],"dc:identifier":["https://aquila.usm.edu/masters_theses/370"],"dc:subject":["wetlands","sea-level rise","climate change","restoration","Biology","Geomorphology","Other Life Sciences","Statistical Models","Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecology"],"dc:title":["Coastal Wetland Dynamics Under Sea-level Rise and Wetland Restoration in the Northern Gulf of Mexico using Bayesian Multilevel Models and a Web Tool"],"thesis:degree_discipline":["Coastal Sciences, Gulf Coast Research Laboratory"],"thesis:degree_level":["Masters Thesis"],"thesis:degree_name":["Master of Science (MS)"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-24T05:44:50Z"}