Fractional Integration and Political Modeling

This dissertation investigates the consequences of fractional dynamics for political modeling. Using Monte Carlo analyses, Chapters II and III investigate the threats to statistical inference posed by including fractionally integrated variables in bivariate and multivariate regressions. Fractional differencing is the most appropriate tool to guard against spurious regressions and other threats to inference. Using fractional differencing, multivariate models of British politics are developed in Chapter IV to compare competing theories regarding which subjective measure of economic evaluations best predicts support levels for the governing party; egocentric measures outperform sociotropic measures. The concept of fractional cointegration is discussed and the value of fractionally integrated error correction mechanisms are both discussed and demonstrated in models of Conservative party support. In Chapter V models of presidential approval in the United States are reconfigured in light of the possibilities of fractionally integrated variables. In both the British and American case accounting for the fractional character of all variables allows the development of more accurate multivariate models.

Grantor dc:publisher

University of North Texas

Year dc:date

1999

Author dc:creator

• Lebo, Matthew Jonathan

Contributors dc:contributor

• Clarke, Harold D.
• Feigert, Frank
• Tan, Alexander
• Meernik, James

• Political science -- Mathematical models.
• Political statistics.
• fractional cointegration
• multivariate models

Statement dc:rights

• Public
• Copyright
• Lebo, Matthew Jonathan
• Copyright is held by the author, unless otherwise noted. All rights reserved.

Language dc:language

English

Identifier

oclc: 45054402
untcat: b2228292
https://digital.library.unt.edu/ark:/67531/metadc2229/
ark: ark:/67531/metadc2229

OAI identifier oai:identifier

info:ark/67531/metadc2229