Urban development growth strategies and societal wellbeing

Cities have advanced in terms of economic and social status over the last five decades, improving the living conditions of hundreds of millions of people. However, population growth and urban expansion have put pressure on social and environmental conditions. Despite the efforts of urban researchers to comprehend urban growth and the interconnectedness of urban sectors, it remains imperative to integrate key sectors comprehensively. The intricate nature of urban areas requires a systems approach in order to understand the potential unintended consequences of growth on societal wellbeing. This thesis examines the links between urban development strategies and societal wellbeing over time. I analyse 500 pages of urban plans for Greater Sydney published between 1968 and 2018, systematically code the text into causal maps and build a simulation model of an urban area to explore alternative urban planning policies and strategies through simulation experiments. The findings show that policymakers have adopted a dominant urban development strategy over the last 50 years of prioritising and pursuing economic and public infrastructure growth in order to cope with population growth, with unintended negative consequences for the social and environmental dimensions of societal wellbeing. Simulation experiments investigate the long-term impact of growth strategies and explore different sets of policies to improve societal wellbeing. The simulation model captures the long-term impacts of population, infrastructure and economic growth on housing affordability, the labour market, environment quality, commuting time and infrastructure capacity, which negatively impact the attractiveness of the city to residents and businesses, along with societal wellbeing. Although policymakers have come to recognise the seriousness of these social and environmental consequences, they have not attempted to change or deviate from the dominant growth strategy in any fundamental way. Instead, they seek to address these consequences (i.e., symptoms) by responding to each issue piecemeal. The simulations show that a combined policy focusing on creating urban density with high levels of green spaces and improved construction materials while also reducing land reserved for urban development, employing strategies to reduce the pressure to build infrastructure and controlling migration may improve societal wellbeing. The analysis of the urban reports shows that policymakers have understood that pursuing growth has resulted in unintended consequences, but that this awareness did not motivate a rethinking of the dominant strategy. To transition to sustainable cities, an away from growth strategies must occur.

Grantor dc:publisher

UNSW, Sydney

Year dc:date

2024

Author dc:creator

• Rios Ocampo, Juan ; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9678-8650

• Societal wellbeing
• Beyond growth
• Urban planning strategy
• System dynamics
• Simulation modeling
• Causal maps
• anzsrc-for: 3304 Urban and regional planning
• anzsrc-for: 440714 Urban policy
• anzsrc-for: 460207 Modelling and simulation
• anzsrc-for: 389902 Ecological economics
• anzsrc-for: 380118 Urban and regional economics
• anzsrc-for: 460209 Planning and decision making
• anzsrc-for: 440704 Environment policy
• anzsrc-for: 440703 Economic development policy

Statement dc:rights

• open access
• CC BY 4.0
• free_to_read

Licence

• https://purl.org/coar/access_right/c_abf2
• https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Language dc:language

en

Identifier

https://doi.org/10.26190/unsworks/30248

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:unsworks.library.unsw.edu.au:1959.4/102387