Modeling the Future Distribution of Rubus chamaemorus (cloudberry) in Alaska

Rubus chamaemorus, cloudberry, is a species of wild berry with high cultural and nutritional value to Indigenous, subsistence-based communities in Alaska. Motivated by existing research suggesting subsistence berries could be vulnerable to climate change impacts, Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) niche modeling was used to understand historical and projected future distributions of cloudberry habitat suitability in five distinct regions of Alaska: Interior, North Slope, Southcentral, West Coast, and Southeast. Leveraging climatological data and other environmental variables, five climate models from CMIP5 (CCSM4, GFDL-CM3, GISS-ER-2, IPSL-CM5A-LR, and MRI-CGCM3) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) were applied to create projected MaxEnt distribution models for the period 2070-2099. Findings reveal significant regional variability in potential habitat suitability responses to projected climate data in most regions and widespread habitat contraction in the North Slope region. Areas with projected maintenance and expansion of suitable habitat suggest that cloudberries may be resilient to climate change or even find new growth opportunities in certain regions. Unexpected projected contraction in the North Slope should be interpreted with caution, due to various uncertainties including limited sampling data and novel climate responses. With study limitations in mind, insights were gained into a range of potential future outcomes for cloudberry habitat suitability across Alaska.

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Science

Level thesis:degree_level

Master's Degree

Year dc:date.issued

2024

Author dc:creator

• Rhodes, Klaire

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• McAfee, Stephanie

Committee members dc:contributor.committeemember

• Albright, Thomas
• Bisbing, Sarah

• Alaska
• Climate
• Cloudberry
• Maxent
• SDM
• Subsistence

Statement dc:rights

• CC BY

Language dc:language.iso

en_US, English

Repository record dc:identifier.uri

https://scholarwolf.unr.edu/handle/11714/11145

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:scholarwolf.unr.edu:11714/11145