Perilous Polities? Regime Transition and Conflict 1950-2000

While evidence continues to mount that democracies resort to military force reluctantly, the transition to democracy may in fact be a dangerous and conflictual one. With the eyes of the world now focused squarely on democratization, a reassessment of the relationship between regime change and inter-state conflict seems fitting. To date, the evidence remains mixed. No clear consensus has emerged on whether regime transition either increases or decreases conflict propensities. The research here builds on models of democratization and conflict by including a more fully specified vector of conflict variables and by using an updated set of cases. Further, interaction effects are explored to assess whether factors such as power or contiguity differentially impact the conflict propensity of transitioning states. Employing a generalized estimating equation with logit and poisson specifications, the results show that change towards democracy decreases the probability of involvement in militarized inter-state disputes and wars. However, uneven or "rocky" transitions are found to increase conflict likelihood.

Name thesis:degree_name

M.A.

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Political Science

Year

2003

Author dc:creator

• Daxecker, Ursula

Contributors dc:contributor

• Prins, Brandon
• Rosenblum, Marc
• Huelshoff, Michael

• conflict
• democratization

Repository record dc:identifier

https://scholarworks.uno.edu/td/44

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:scholarworks.uno.edu:td-1043