Bounded population forecasts of Nye County communities generated by the cohort-component method: A mushrooming development

This study will forecast the subcounty population of Nye County, Nevada in convenient and useful boroughs for the purpose of assisting local planners in allocating essential services. We shall explore and revise a new technique by providing a means of quantifying the accuracy of population projections using the cohort-component method. This technique will place a formal measure of uncertainty around the projections by analyzing bias and random errors; a Mean Square Error (Master of Engineering (ME)) Confidence Interval (CI). The two sources of error will be extended to cover errors in cohort-component projections resulting from net migration, mortality, and fertility. In addition, the cohort-component method will include a basic industry adjustment for net migration. This new approach will extradite unforeseen, economic motivated migration. Net-migration will also be trended to the western states average to account for changing migratory behavior. Under a similar assumption, fertility will be linearly trended toward national levels to account for the changing demographic characteristic of the population.

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Arts (MA)

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Economics

Grantor dc:publisher

University of Nevada, Las Vegas

Year

1994

Author dc:creator

• Arnold, Douglas George

Statement dc:rights

• IN COPYRIGHT. For more information about this rights statement, please visit http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Language dc:language

English

Identifier

https://oasis.library.unlv.edu/rtds/373

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:oasis.library.unlv.edu:rtds-1372