{"id":{"repo_id":"uiuc","oai_identifier":"oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/95507"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/uiuc/oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/95507","repository":{"repo_id":"uiuc","name":"University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign","base_url":"https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh"},"display":{"title":"Analyzing the effects of unforced natural variability and anthropogenic forcing on ENSO variability using CESM","abstract":"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important contributor to Earth’s inter-annual climate variability, with worldwide weather effects (Whetton and Rutherfurd, 1994; Hoerling and Zhong, 1997; Dai and Wigley, 2000). Understanding how ENSO may change with climate is a major challenge, given the internal variability of the system and relatively short observational record (Wittenberg, 2009). Much recent research has used multi-model ensembles to address the effects of climate change on ENSO (Stevenson, 2012; Cai et al., 2014; Kim et al., 2014). Here we analyze ENSO in a Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble that samples internal variability of the coupled Earth system. We present results from a 50-member climate change ensemble experiment, using historical climate forcings (1850-2005) and projections to 2100 following the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). With this ensemble, and a ~5000 year control run with constant pre-industrial conditions, we examine ENSO variability under different forcing regimes. We compare the effects of anthropogenic climate change with the effects of natural modulations on ENSO sea surface temperature (SST). We find that any changes in ENSO SST due to climate change are secondary to natural modulations.","abstract_html":"The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important contributor to Earth’s inter-annual climate variability, with worldwide weather effects (Whetton and Rutherfurd, 1994; Hoerling and Zhong, 1997; Dai and Wigley, 2000). Understanding how ENSO may change with climate is a major challenge, given the internal variability of the system and relatively short observational record (Wittenberg, 2009). Much recent research has used multi-model ensembles to address the effects of climate change on ENSO (Stevenson, 2012; Cai et al., 2014; Kim et al., 2014). Here we analyze ENSO in a Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble that samples internal variability of the coupled Earth system. We present results from a 50-member climate change ensemble experiment, using historical climate forcings (1850-2005) and projections to 2100 following the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). With this ensemble, and a ~5000 year control run with constant pre-industrial conditions, we examine ENSO variability under different forcing regimes. We compare the effects of anthropogenic climate change with the effects of natural modulations on ENSO sea surface temperature (SST). We find that any changes in ENSO SST due to climate change are secondary to natural modulations.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Vega-Westhoff, Benjamin Aaron"],"institution":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign","degree_name":"M.S.","degree_level":"Thesis","degree_discipline":"Atmospheric Sciences","degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":["Sriver, Ryan"],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2017,"date_issued":"2017-03-01T16:37:05Z","date_published":"2017-03-01T16:37:05Z","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:26:37Z","subjects":["Climate","El niño-southern oscillation (ENSO)","Variability","Community earth system model (CESM)","El Niño"],"languages":["en"],"rights":["Copyright 2016 Benjamin Vega-Westhoff"],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2142/95507","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor","label":"Contributor","values":["Sriver, Ryan"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Vega-Westhoff, Benjamin Aaron"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date","label":"Dc Date","values":["2017-03-01T16:37:05Z","2019-03-02T10:15:24Z","2016-12-05","2016-12"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["text"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Atmospheric Sciences"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["Thesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["M.S."]},{"key":"thesis:institution_name","label":"Thesis Institution Name","values":["University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["Climate","El niño-southern oscillation (ENSO)","Variability","Community earth system model (CESM)","El Niño"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language","label":"Dc Language","values":["en"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["Copyright 2016 Benjamin Vega-Westhoff"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/2142/95507"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description","label":"Description","values":["The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is an important contributor to Earth’s inter-annual climate variability, with worldwide weather effects (Whetton and Rutherfurd, 1994; Hoerling and Zhong, 1997; Dai and Wigley, 2000). Understanding how ENSO may change with climate is a major challenge, given the internal variability of the system and relatively short observational record (Wittenberg, 2009). Much recent research has used multi-model ensembles to address the effects of climate change on ENSO (Stevenson, 2012; Cai et al., 2014; Kim et al., 2014). Here we analyze ENSO in a Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble that samples internal variability of the coupled Earth system. We present results from a 50-member climate change ensemble experiment, using historical climate forcings (1850-2005) and projections to 2100 following the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). With this ensemble, and a ~5000 year control run with constant pre-industrial conditions, we examine ENSO variability under different forcing regimes. We compare the effects of anthropogenic climate change with the effects of natural modulations on ENSO sea surface temperature (SST). We find that any changes in ENSO SST due to climate change are secondary to natural modulations.","Submission published under a 24 month embargo labeled 'U of I Access', the embargo will last until 2018-12-01","The student, Benjamin Vega-Westhoff, accepted the attached license on 2016-12-02 at 15:57.","The student, Benjamin Vega-Westhoff, submitted this Thesis for approval on 2016-12-02 at 16:08.","This Thesis was approved for publication on 2016-12-05 at 14:54.","DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #10423 on 2017-02-28 at 14:37:14","Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-01T16:37:05Z (GMT). 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Understanding how ENSO may change with climate is a major challenge, given the internal variability of the system and relatively short observational record (Wittenberg, 2009). Much recent research has used multi-model ensembles to address the effects of climate change on ENSO (Stevenson, 2012; Cai et al., 2014; Kim et al., 2014). Here we analyze ENSO in a Community Earth System Model (CESM) ensemble that samples internal variability of the coupled Earth system. We present results from a 50-member climate change ensemble experiment, using historical climate forcings (1850-2005) and projections to 2100 following the representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5). With this ensemble, and a ~5000 year control run with constant pre-industrial conditions, we examine ENSO variability under different forcing regimes. We compare the effects of anthropogenic climate change with the effects of natural modulations on ENSO sea surface temperature (SST). We find that any changes in ENSO SST due to climate change are secondary to natural modulations.","Submission published under a 24 month embargo labeled 'U of I Access', the embargo will last until 2018-12-01","The student, Benjamin Vega-Westhoff, accepted the attached license on 2016-12-02 at 15:57.","The student, Benjamin Vega-Westhoff, submitted this Thesis for approval on 2016-12-02 at 16:08.","This Thesis was approved for publication on 2016-12-05 at 14:54.","DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #10423 on 2017-02-28 at 14:37:14","Made available in DSpace on 2017-03-01T16:37:05Z (GMT). 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