{"id":{"repo_id":"uiuc","oai_identifier":"oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/92852"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/uiuc/oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/92852","repository":{"repo_id":"uiuc","name":"University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign","base_url":"https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh"},"display":{"title":"Oil prices and regional trade in the United States","abstract":"This paper explores the effect of a diesel price on trade flows across space within the U.S. Using a structural gravity model applied to the U.S. inter-state trade, we find diesel price has a significant negative effect on interstate trade, and that trade between any pair of states is more sensitive to an oil price shock the farther away the states are from one another. Exemplifying this in a general equilibrium, a 10% increase in diesel price decreases trade from Massachusetts to California by 2.9%, but only by 0.47% to New York, accounting for a 2.43 percentage point difference. At the same time Massachusetts increases trade within its own borders by 0.53%. In general, we can see that trade becomes more local (or regional) when fuel costs rise. Finally, such a modest increase of diesel price leads to non-uniform state welfare effects, with a median 0.69% real GDP loss, amounting to a total income loss of $82 billion nationwide.","abstract_html":"This paper explores the effect of a diesel price on trade flows across space within the U.S. Using a structural gravity model applied to the U.S. inter-state trade, we find diesel price has a significant negative effect on interstate trade, and that trade between any pair of states is more sensitive to an oil price shock the farther away the states are from one another. Exemplifying this in a general equilibrium, a 10% increase in diesel price decreases trade from Massachusetts to California by 2.9%, but only by 0.47% to New York, accounting for a 2.43 percentage point difference. At the same time Massachusetts increases trade within its own borders by 0.53%. In general, we can see that trade becomes more local (or regional) when fuel costs rise. Finally, such a modest increase of diesel price leads to non-uniform state welfare effects, with a median 0.69% real GDP loss, amounting to a total income loss of $82 billion nationwide.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Szewerniak, Wojciech W"],"institution":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign","degree_name":"M.S.","degree_level":"Thesis","degree_discipline":"Agricultural & Applied Econ","degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":["Xu, Yilan"],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2016,"date_issued":"2016-11-10T17:55:14Z","date_published":"2016-11-10T17:55:14Z","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:26:35Z","subjects":["oil prices","trade","gravity"],"languages":["en"],"rights":["Copyright 2016 Wojciech Szewerniak"],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2142/92852","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor","label":"Contributor","values":["Xu, Yilan"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Szewerniak, Wojciech W"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date","label":"Dc Date","values":["2016-11-10T17:55:14Z","2016-07-19","2016-08"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["text"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Agricultural & Applied Econ"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["Thesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["M.S."]},{"key":"thesis:institution_name","label":"Thesis Institution Name","values":["University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["oil prices","trade","gravity"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language","label":"Dc Language","values":["en"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["Copyright 2016 Wojciech Szewerniak"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/2142/92852"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description","label":"Description","values":["This paper explores the effect of a diesel price on trade flows across space within the U.S. Using a structural gravity model applied to the U.S. inter-state trade, we find diesel price has a significant negative effect on interstate trade, and that trade between any pair of states is more sensitive to an oil price shock the farther away the states are from one another. Exemplifying this in a general equilibrium, a 10% increase in diesel price decreases trade from Massachusetts to California by 2.9%, but only by 0.47% to New York, accounting for a 2.43 percentage point difference. At the same time Massachusetts increases trade within its own borders by 0.53%. In general, we can see that trade becomes more local (or regional) when fuel costs rise. Finally, such a modest increase of diesel price leads to non-uniform state welfare effects, with a median 0.69% real GDP loss, amounting to a total income loss of $82 billion nationwide.","Submission original under an indefinite embargo labeled 'Open Access'. The submission was exported from vireo on 2016-11-09 without embargo terms","The student, Wojciech Szewerniak, accepted the attached license on 2016-07-15 at 11:55.","The student, Wojciech Szewerniak, submitted this Thesis for approval on 2016-07-15 at 11:55.","This Thesis was approved for publication on 2016-07-19 at 08:58.","DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #9962 on 2016-11-09 at 10:25:15","Made available in DSpace on 2016-11-10T17:55:14Z (GMT). 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Exemplifying this in a general equilibrium, a 10% increase in diesel price decreases trade from Massachusetts to California by 2.9%, but only by 0.47% to New York, accounting for a 2.43 percentage point difference. At the same time Massachusetts increases trade within its own borders by 0.53%. In general, we can see that trade becomes more local (or regional) when fuel costs rise. Finally, such a modest increase of diesel price leads to non-uniform state welfare effects, with a median 0.69% real GDP loss, amounting to a total income loss of $82 billion nationwide.","Submission original under an indefinite embargo labeled 'Open Access'. The submission was exported from vireo on 2016-11-09 without embargo terms","The student, Wojciech Szewerniak, accepted the attached license on 2016-07-15 at 11:55.","The student, Wojciech Szewerniak, submitted this Thesis for approval on 2016-07-15 at 11:55.","This Thesis was approved for publication on 2016-07-19 at 08:58.","DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #9962 on 2016-11-09 at 10:25:15","Made available in DSpace on 2016-11-10T17:55:14Z (GMT). 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