{"id":{"repo_id":"uiuc","oai_identifier":"oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/50349"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/uiuc/oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/50349","repository":{"repo_id":"uiuc","name":"University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign","base_url":"https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh"},"display":{"title":"Fire regime change and the boreal forest carbon cycle from 10,000 years ago to 2100 AD","abstract":"Boreal forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle, and wildfire is a key control of boreal carbon dynamics. Rapid high latitude climate change will likely alter boreal fire regimes, potentially disrupting the historical role of the biome as a major sink for anthropogenic carbon emissions. However, the brevity of observational fire records limits understanding of the trajectory and implications of such change. I addressed this limitation by reconstructing 10,000 years of paleoenvironmental history in the Yukon Flats of interior Alaska, incorporating the paleorecord into ecosystem model experiments, and applying insights from these approaches to the development of a statistical model for predicting fire regime change. Results reveal that recent burning is unprecedented in the last 10,000 years. Fire frequency fluctuations were the dominant control on carbon dynamics of the past millennium, and the increase in fire activity over the past several decades has caused large regional carbon losses. Fuel limitation due to fire-vegetation feedback dampened fire regime responses to centennial climate variability in the past, and a statistical model based on recent fire observations predicts that this mechanism will strongly attenuate future increases in fire activity. However, the exceptional magnitude of anthropogenic climate change will cause a pronounced increase in the rate of boreal forest burning in spite of vegetation feedback. As a result, dramatic shifts in ecosystem composition are likely across boreal Alaska, and the region will serve as a persistent source of atmospheric carbon throughout the 21st century.","abstract_html":"Boreal forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle, and wildfire is a key control of boreal carbon dynamics. Rapid high latitude climate change will likely alter boreal fire regimes, potentially disrupting the historical role of the biome as a major sink for anthropogenic carbon emissions. However, the brevity of observational fire records limits understanding of the trajectory and implications of such change. I addressed this limitation by reconstructing 10,000 years of paleoenvironmental history in the Yukon Flats of interior Alaska, incorporating the paleorecord into ecosystem model experiments, and applying insights from these approaches to the development of a statistical model for predicting fire regime change. Results reveal that recent burning is unprecedented in the last 10,000 years. Fire frequency fluctuations were the dominant control on carbon dynamics of the past millennium, and the increase in fire activity over the past several decades has caused large regional carbon losses. Fuel limitation due to fire-vegetation feedback dampened fire regime responses to centennial climate variability in the past, and a statistical model based on recent fire observations predicts that this mechanism will strongly attenuate future increases in fire activity. However, the exceptional magnitude of anthropogenic climate change will cause a pronounced increase in the rate of boreal forest burning in spite of vegetation feedback. As a result, dramatic shifts in ecosystem composition are likely across boreal Alaska, and the region will serve as a persistent source of atmospheric carbon throughout the 21st century.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Kelly, Ryan"],"institution":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign","degree_name":"Ph.D.","degree_level":"Dissertation","degree_discipline":"Plant Biology","degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":["Hu, Feng Sheng","Dietze, Michael C.","Fraterrigo, Jennifer M.","Higuera, Philip E.","Walsh, John E."],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2014,"date_issued":"2014-09-16T17:11:56Z","date_published":"2014-09-16T17:11:56Z","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:25:40Z","subjects":["Boreal forest","fire regime","ecosystem ecology","paleoecology","global change biology","climate change","Arctic","Holocene","ecosystem modeling"],"languages":["en"],"rights":["Copyright 2014 Ryan Kelly"],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2142/50349","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor","label":"Contributor","values":["Hu, Feng Sheng","Dietze, Michael C.","Fraterrigo, Jennifer M.","Higuera, Philip E.","Walsh, John E."]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Kelly, Ryan"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date","label":"Dc Date","values":["2014-09-16T17:11:56Z","2016-09-22T20:59:12Z","2014-08","2014-09-16"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["text"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Plant Biology"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["Dissertation"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["Ph.D."]},{"key":"thesis:institution_name","label":"Thesis Institution Name","values":["University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["Boreal forest","fire regime","ecosystem ecology","paleoecology","global change biology","climate change","Arctic","Holocene","ecosystem modeling"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language","label":"Dc Language","values":["en"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["Copyright 2014 Ryan Kelly"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/2142/50349"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description","label":"Description","values":["Boreal forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle, and wildfire is a key control of boreal carbon dynamics. Rapid high latitude climate change will likely alter boreal fire regimes, potentially disrupting the historical role of the biome as a major sink for anthropogenic carbon emissions. However, the brevity of observational fire records limits understanding of the trajectory and implications of such change. I addressed this limitation by reconstructing 10,000 years of paleoenvironmental history in the Yukon Flats of interior Alaska, incorporating the paleorecord into ecosystem model experiments, and applying insights from these approaches to the development of a statistical model for predicting fire regime change. Results reveal that recent burning is unprecedented in the last 10,000 years. Fire frequency fluctuations were the dominant control on carbon dynamics of the past millennium, and the increase in fire activity over the past several decades has caused large regional carbon losses. Fuel limitation due to fire-vegetation feedback dampened fire regime responses to centennial climate variability in the past, and a statistical model based on recent fire observations predicts that this mechanism will strongly attenuate future increases in fire activity. However, the exceptional magnitude of anthropogenic climate change will cause a pronounced increase in the rate of boreal forest burning in spite of vegetation feedback. As a result, dramatic shifts in ecosystem composition are likely across boreal Alaska, and the region will serve as a persistent source of atmospheric carbon throughout the 21st century.","Item withdrawn by Laura Spradlin (lspradl2@illinois.edu) on 2014-07-01T19:19:53Z Item was in collections: University of Illinois Theses & Dissertations (ID: 1) No. of bitstreams: 1 Kelly_Ryan.pdf: 6657840 bytes, checksum: 2ffe6725f5dee9e95c9219b2220f0c4b (MD5)","Made available in DSpace on 2014-09-16T17:11:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Ryan_Kelly.pdf: 6734315 bytes, checksum: 78255e0bb1f2d8e57770d37ca30e42d4 (MD5) license.txt: 4058 bytes, checksum: e69e7c477eec1072a2a62b039edcda60 (MD5)","Embargo set by: Seth Robbins for item 50460 Lift date: 2016-09-16T17:13:01Z Reason: Author requested closed access (OA after 2yrs) in Vireo ETD system","Limited Restriction Lifted for Item 50460 on 2016-09-22T20:59:12Z."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Fire regime change and the boreal forest carbon cycle from 10,000 years ago to 2100 AD"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor":["Hu, Feng Sheng","Dietze, Michael C.","Fraterrigo, Jennifer M.","Higuera, Philip E.","Walsh, John E."],"dc:creator":["Kelly, Ryan"],"dc:date":["2014-09-16T17:11:56Z","2016-09-22T20:59:12Z","2014-08","2014-09-16"],"dc:description":["Boreal forests play an important role in the global carbon cycle, and wildfire is a key control of boreal carbon dynamics. Rapid high latitude climate change will likely alter boreal fire regimes, potentially disrupting the historical role of the biome as a major sink for anthropogenic carbon emissions. However, the brevity of observational fire records limits understanding of the trajectory and implications of such change. I addressed this limitation by reconstructing 10,000 years of paleoenvironmental history in the Yukon Flats of interior Alaska, incorporating the paleorecord into ecosystem model experiments, and applying insights from these approaches to the development of a statistical model for predicting fire regime change. Results reveal that recent burning is unprecedented in the last 10,000 years. Fire frequency fluctuations were the dominant control on carbon dynamics of the past millennium, and the increase in fire activity over the past several decades has caused large regional carbon losses. Fuel limitation due to fire-vegetation feedback dampened fire regime responses to centennial climate variability in the past, and a statistical model based on recent fire observations predicts that this mechanism will strongly attenuate future increases in fire activity. However, the exceptional magnitude of anthropogenic climate change will cause a pronounced increase in the rate of boreal forest burning in spite of vegetation feedback. As a result, dramatic shifts in ecosystem composition are likely across boreal Alaska, and the region will serve as a persistent source of atmospheric carbon throughout the 21st century.","Item withdrawn by Laura Spradlin (lspradl2@illinois.edu) on 2014-07-01T19:19:53Z Item was in collections: University of Illinois Theses & Dissertations (ID: 1) No. of bitstreams: 1 Kelly_Ryan.pdf: 6657840 bytes, checksum: 2ffe6725f5dee9e95c9219b2220f0c4b (MD5)","Made available in DSpace on 2014-09-16T17:11:56Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 Ryan_Kelly.pdf: 6734315 bytes, checksum: 78255e0bb1f2d8e57770d37ca30e42d4 (MD5) license.txt: 4058 bytes, checksum: e69e7c477eec1072a2a62b039edcda60 (MD5)","Embargo set by: Seth Robbins for item 50460 Lift date: 2016-09-16T17:13:01Z Reason: Author requested closed access (OA after 2yrs) in Vireo ETD system","Limited Restriction Lifted for Item 50460 on 2016-09-22T20:59:12Z."],"dc:identifier":["http://hdl.handle.net/2142/50349"],"dc:language":["en"],"dc:rights":["Copyright 2014 Ryan Kelly"],"dc:subject":["Boreal forest","fire regime","ecosystem ecology","paleoecology","global change biology","climate change","Arctic","Holocene","ecosystem modeling"],"dc:title":["Fire regime change and the boreal forest carbon cycle from 10,000 years ago to 2100 AD"],"dc:type":["text"],"thesis:degree_discipline":["Plant Biology"],"thesis:degree_level":["Dissertation"],"thesis:degree_name":["Ph.D."],"thesis:institution_name":["University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:25:40Z"}