Variability in output and reliability of broadly distributed wind farms and solar arrays as a function of the system scale
This study was motivated by the current difficulties faced by the electric power industry in maintaining acceptable levels of electric grid reliability in broadly distributed wind and solar resources. This thesis presents a study on the geographic diversification of wind turbines and solar arrays to minimize the variance in the expected renewable output according to the mean variance portfolio theory. The uncorrelatedness in the wind and solar patterns amongst geographically diverse sites could compensate shortfalls in electric generation in a region. By studying the effects of deployment of renewable capacity in progressively larger deployment zones within the U.S. we hope to identify an optimal scale for a broadly distributed system as dictated by its reliability. The study monitors measurements of the loss of load probability (LOLP), expected unserved energy (EUE) and the ramping of the controllable load to study the electric reliability of hybrid wind and solar resources as function of the system scale.
mean variance portfolio, wind, energy, hybrid, solar, ramping, wind and solar pattern, correlation, geographic diversification
University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign
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University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign