{"id":{"repo_id":"uiuc","oai_identifier":"oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/21147"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/uiuc/oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/21147","repository":{"repo_id":"uiuc","name":"University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign","base_url":"https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh"},"display":{"title":"A Cox proportional hazards-cash flow model for bank failure prediction","abstract":"This research uses the Cox proportional hazard model and bank cash flow information to determine whether adding cash flow information will improve current bank failure prediction methods. In two published papers it has been shown that the Cox model performs as well as other models with respect to error rates and predictive accuracy. The Cox model, however, provides more information than models using the logit, probit or multiple discriminant analysis techniques. Proportional hazards models estimate both the probability that a bank will fail and the probable time to failure.","abstract_html":"This research uses the Cox proportional hazard model and bank cash flow information to determine whether adding cash flow information will improve current bank failure prediction methods. In two published papers it has been shown that the Cox model performs as well as other models with respect to error rates and predictive accuracy. The Cox model, however, provides more information than models using the logit, probit or multiple discriminant analysis techniques. Proportional hazards models estimate both the probability that a bank will fail and the probable time to failure.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Henebry, Kathleen L."],"institution":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign","degree_name":"Ph.D.","degree_level":"Dissertation","degree_discipline":"Finance","degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":["Lynge, Morgan J., Jr."],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2011,"date_issued":"2011-05-07T12:59:45Z","date_published":"2011-05-07T12:59:45Z","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:25:17Z","subjects":["Economics, Finance","Business Administration, Banking"],"languages":["eng"],"rights":["Copyright 1994 Henebry, Kathleen L."],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["AAI9503211","(UMI)AAI9503211"],"render_values":[{"text":"AAI9503211","href":null,"code":true},{"text":"(UMI)AAI9503211","href":null,"code":true}]}]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2142/21147","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor","label":"Contributor","values":["Lynge, Morgan J., Jr."]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Henebry, Kathleen L."]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date","label":"Dc Date","values":["2011-05-07T12:59:45Z","10000-01-01","1994"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["text"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Finance"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["Dissertation"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["Ph.D."]},{"key":"thesis:institution_name","label":"Thesis Institution Name","values":["University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["Economics, Finance","Business Administration, Banking"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language","label":"Dc Language","values":["eng"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["Copyright 1994 Henebry, Kathleen L."]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["AAI9503211","(UMI)AAI9503211","http://hdl.handle.net/2142/21147"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description","label":"Description","values":["This research uses the Cox proportional hazard model and bank cash flow information to determine whether adding cash flow information will improve current bank failure prediction methods. In two published papers it has been shown that the Cox model performs as well as other models with respect to error rates and predictive accuracy. The Cox model, however, provides more information than models using the logit, probit or multiple discriminant analysis techniques. Proportional hazards models estimate both the probability that a bank will fail and the probable time to failure.","To date, no attempt has been made to include cash flow information in bank failure prediction models. In the corporate failure prediction literature it has been shown that including cash flow variables improves the performance of the models. This paper tests whether a similar result occurs for bank failure prediction models.","Models were estimated for several different time horizons and their temporal stability tested. Ideally, a predictive model will be stable over time so that it may be applied to new data without re-estimating the coefficients.","Data was drawn from the FDIC Call Report tapes. Failed banks were taken from the FDIC Annual Reports: a nonfailed matching sample was drawn. The time frame of the study is 1985-1990.","The results indicate that adding the cash flow information does not result in greater predictive accuracy. The models using cash flow information were not significantly superior to those using only regular accounting information.","Made available in DSpace on 2011-05-07T12:59:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license.txt: 4922 bytes, checksum: 910b249b4beec47e7ab768910c8f966f (MD5) 9503211.pdf: 3345212 bytes, checksum: 7be615b3df07b8178ba2440e2a47726f (MD5) Previous issue date: 1994","Item marked as restricted to the 'UIUC Users [automated]' Group (id=2) by Howard Ding (hding2@illinois.edu) on 2011-05-07T14:48:48Z Item is restricted indefinitely.","Restriction data tranferred 2014-07-01T11:22:08-05:00 Original Data Group with Access UIUC Users [automated] Release Date: none Reason: ETDs are only available to UIUC Users without author permission","ETDs are only available to UIUC Users without author permission","U of I Only"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["A Cox proportional hazards-cash flow model for bank failure prediction"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor":["Lynge, Morgan J., Jr."],"dc:creator":["Henebry, Kathleen L."],"dc:date":["2011-05-07T12:59:45Z","10000-01-01","1994"],"dc:description":["This research uses the Cox proportional hazard model and bank cash flow information to determine whether adding cash flow information will improve current bank failure prediction methods. In two published papers it has been shown that the Cox model performs as well as other models with respect to error rates and predictive accuracy. The Cox model, however, provides more information than models using the logit, probit or multiple discriminant analysis techniques. Proportional hazards models estimate both the probability that a bank will fail and the probable time to failure.","To date, no attempt has been made to include cash flow information in bank failure prediction models. In the corporate failure prediction literature it has been shown that including cash flow variables improves the performance of the models. This paper tests whether a similar result occurs for bank failure prediction models.","Models were estimated for several different time horizons and their temporal stability tested. Ideally, a predictive model will be stable over time so that it may be applied to new data without re-estimating the coefficients.","Data was drawn from the FDIC Call Report tapes. Failed banks were taken from the FDIC Annual Reports: a nonfailed matching sample was drawn. The time frame of the study is 1985-1990.","The results indicate that adding the cash flow information does not result in greater predictive accuracy. The models using cash flow information were not significantly superior to those using only regular accounting information.","Made available in DSpace on 2011-05-07T12:59:45Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 license.txt: 4922 bytes, checksum: 910b249b4beec47e7ab768910c8f966f (MD5) 9503211.pdf: 3345212 bytes, checksum: 7be615b3df07b8178ba2440e2a47726f (MD5) Previous issue date: 1994","Item marked as restricted to the 'UIUC Users [automated]' Group (id=2) by Howard Ding (hding2@illinois.edu) on 2011-05-07T14:48:48Z Item is restricted indefinitely.","Restriction data tranferred 2014-07-01T11:22:08-05:00 Original Data Group with Access UIUC Users [automated] Release Date: none Reason: ETDs are only available to UIUC Users without author permission","ETDs are only available to UIUC Users without author permission","U of I Only"],"dc:identifier":["AAI9503211","(UMI)AAI9503211","http://hdl.handle.net/2142/21147"],"dc:language":["eng"],"dc:rights":["Copyright 1994 Henebry, Kathleen L."],"dc:subject":["Economics, Finance","Business Administration, Banking"],"dc:title":["A Cox proportional hazards-cash flow model for bank failure prediction"],"dc:type":["text"],"thesis:degree_discipline":["Finance"],"thesis:degree_level":["Dissertation"],"thesis:degree_name":["Ph.D."],"thesis:institution_name":["University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:25:17Z"}