{"id":{"repo_id":"uiuc","oai_identifier":"oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/110587"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/uiuc/oai:www.ideals.illinois.edu:2142/110587","repository":{"repo_id":"uiuc","name":"University of Illinois - Urbana-Champaign","base_url":"https://www.ideals.illinois.edu/oai-pmh"},"display":{"title":"Investigating the relationship between urban total runoff and future climate change","abstract":"DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #16588 on 2021-09-16 at 16:48:51","abstract_html":"DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #16588 on 2021-09-16 at 16:48:51","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Gray, Laura Caroline"],"institution":"University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign","degree_name":"M.S.","degree_level":"Thesis","degree_discipline":"Environ Engr in Civil Engr","degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":["Stillwell, Ashlynn S","Zhao, Lei"],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2021,"date_issued":"2021-09-17T01:13:31Z","date_published":"2021-09-17T01:13:31Z","updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:24:52Z","subjects":["Runoff","urban runoff","runoff validation","global climate modeling","Community Earth System Model (CESM)","Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)","urban studies","climate change","climate change scenarios"],"languages":["en"],"rights":["Copyright 2021 Laura Gray"],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://hdl.handle.net/2142/110587","outbound_label":"Handle","outbound_source":"dc:identifier"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor","label":"Contributor","values":["Stillwell, Ashlynn S","Zhao, Lei"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Gray, Laura Caroline"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date","label":"Dc Date","values":["2021-09-17T01:13:31Z","2021-04-28","2021-05"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["text","Thesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_discipline","label":"Discipline","values":["Environ Engr in Civil Engr"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["Thesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_name","label":"Degree Name","values":["M.S."]},{"key":"thesis:institution_name","label":"Thesis Institution Name","values":["University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["Runoff","urban runoff","runoff validation","global climate modeling","Community Earth System Model (CESM)","Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)","urban studies","climate change","climate change scenarios"]}]},{"id":"language_rights","label":"Language and Rights","entries":[{"key":"dc:language","label":"Dc Language","values":["en"]},{"key":"dc:rights","label":"Dc Rights","values":["Copyright 2021 Laura Gray"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier","label":"Identifier","values":["http://hdl.handle.net/2142/110587"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description","label":"Description","values":["DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #16588 on 2021-09-16 at 16:48:51","Urban flooding and runoff have become prominent issues for many cities and regions, arising from a combination of altered precipitation patterns, urban growth, development in floodplains, and increases in impervious surfaces. Additionally, climate models consistently project that frequency, severity, and duration of hydroclimatic extremes will increase over this century under climate change. However, there is still uncertainty in accurately representing the hydrologic cycle in climate models. In this study, total runoff from the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) historical simulations that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were validated against two datasets, University of New Hampshire-Global Runoff Data Centre (UNH-GRDC) and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and urban runoff under future climate change scenarios was analyzed. Global annual monthly runoff averages from the period 1986-1995 were calculated for CESM, UNH-GRDC, and MERRA-2, and bias and correlation coefficients between CESM and UNH-GRDC and CESM and MERRA-2 were calculated. Future urban runoff across three CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) --- 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 --- was also analyzed and changes between the future period of 2041-2050 and the present period 2016-2020 were evaluated for each scenario. Annual average bias calculations showed spatial consistency between the CESM simulations and both the UNH-GRDC composite runoff data and the MERRA-2 reanalysis data. However, there is spatial inconsistency in some areas highlighted as major runoff producers, such as the Amazon basin and Southeast Asia, as well as mountainous regions outside the United States. The data also suggest that CESM is more accurate with temporal averaging. Urban runoff analysis suggests that future hydroclimatic conditions will vary widely depending on present human action. Through the validation of CESM's total runoff component and the analysis of future urban runoff, insight is provided into possible improvements in representing runoff in CESM and understanding of the benchmark of runoff uncertainty in CESM's future hydroclimatic projections is advanced.","Submission original under an indefinite embargo labeled 'Open Access'. The submission was exported from vireo on 2021-09-16 without embargo terms","The student, Laura Gray, accepted the attached license on 2021-04-27 at 13:36.","The student, Laura Gray, submitted this Thesis for approval on 2021-04-27 at 13:57.","This Thesis was approved for publication on 2021-04-28 at 14:54.","Made available in DSpace on 2021-09-17T01:13:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 GRAY-THESIS-2021.pdf: 19353597 bytes, checksum: 2de989891eaf98b7eb57c15991306162 (MD5) LICENSE.txt: 4207 bytes, checksum: 4e160cc996a31ebace6e5202debcfb1b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2021-04-28"]},{"key":"dc:format","label":"Dc Format","values":["application/pdf"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Investigating the relationship between urban total runoff and future climate change"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor":["Stillwell, Ashlynn S","Zhao, Lei"],"dc:creator":["Gray, Laura Caroline"],"dc:date":["2021-09-17T01:13:31Z","2021-04-28","2021-05"],"dc:description":["DSpace SAF Submission Ingestion Package generated from Vireo submission #16588 on 2021-09-16 at 16:48:51","Urban flooding and runoff have become prominent issues for many cities and regions, arising from a combination of altered precipitation patterns, urban growth, development in floodplains, and increases in impervious surfaces. Additionally, climate models consistently project that frequency, severity, and duration of hydroclimatic extremes will increase over this century under climate change. However, there is still uncertainty in accurately representing the hydrologic cycle in climate models. In this study, total runoff from the fully coupled Community Earth System Model (CESM) historical simulations that participate in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were validated against two datasets, University of New Hampshire-Global Runoff Data Centre (UNH-GRDC) and the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2), and urban runoff under future climate change scenarios was analyzed. Global annual monthly runoff averages from the period 1986-1995 were calculated for CESM, UNH-GRDC, and MERRA-2, and bias and correlation coefficients between CESM and UNH-GRDC and CESM and MERRA-2 were calculated. Future urban runoff across three CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) --- 2-4.5, 3-7.0, and 5-8.5 --- was also analyzed and changes between the future period of 2041-2050 and the present period 2016-2020 were evaluated for each scenario. Annual average bias calculations showed spatial consistency between the CESM simulations and both the UNH-GRDC composite runoff data and the MERRA-2 reanalysis data. However, there is spatial inconsistency in some areas highlighted as major runoff producers, such as the Amazon basin and Southeast Asia, as well as mountainous regions outside the United States. The data also suggest that CESM is more accurate with temporal averaging. Urban runoff analysis suggests that future hydroclimatic conditions will vary widely depending on present human action. Through the validation of CESM's total runoff component and the analysis of future urban runoff, insight is provided into possible improvements in representing runoff in CESM and understanding of the benchmark of runoff uncertainty in CESM's future hydroclimatic projections is advanced.","Submission original under an indefinite embargo labeled 'Open Access'. The submission was exported from vireo on 2021-09-16 without embargo terms","The student, Laura Gray, accepted the attached license on 2021-04-27 at 13:36.","The student, Laura Gray, submitted this Thesis for approval on 2021-04-27 at 13:57.","This Thesis was approved for publication on 2021-04-28 at 14:54.","Made available in DSpace on 2021-09-17T01:13:31Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 2 GRAY-THESIS-2021.pdf: 19353597 bytes, checksum: 2de989891eaf98b7eb57c15991306162 (MD5) LICENSE.txt: 4207 bytes, checksum: 4e160cc996a31ebace6e5202debcfb1b (MD5) Previous issue date: 2021-04-28"],"dc:format":["application/pdf"],"dc:identifier":["http://hdl.handle.net/2142/110587"],"dc:language":["en"],"dc:rights":["Copyright 2021 Laura Gray"],"dc:subject":["Runoff","urban runoff","runoff validation","global climate modeling","Community Earth System Model (CESM)","Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6)","urban studies","climate change","climate change scenarios"],"dc:title":["Investigating the relationship between urban total runoff and future climate change"],"dc:type":["text","Thesis"],"thesis:degree_discipline":["Environ Engr in Civil Engr"],"thesis:degree_level":["Thesis"],"thesis:degree_name":["M.S."],"thesis:institution_name":["University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-22T22:24:52Z"}