European and German low-carbon energy transition

This dissertation details possible pathways for the European and German energy transition. The open source Global Energy System Model (GENeSYS-MOD) is applied, a multisectoral long-term energy system model, to apply different methodologies accounting for uncertainty in the future energy system. With the goal of outlining challenges and opportunities of the energy system transformation, this dissertation provides common findings and no-regret options found across multiple studies. Part I of this dissertation focuses on decarbonization pathways and 100% renewable energy systems in Europe. Numerous energy system models are being used, raising the need to adequately assess their results if policy and decision makers should take well-informed decisions. The first chapter draws from previous experience of modeling 100% renewable energy systems and outlines lessons learned from these exercises. Various energy transition pathways are then analyzed and common findings are synthesized which are compared to the efforts of the European Green Deal (EGD). Thereafter, the effects that short sighted decision making could have on the energy system, especially regarding the problem of stranded assets. Key findings of this part highlight the need for open science and clear result communication. In Part II, challenges and opportunities for the German Energiewende are discussed. It starts by providing a comparison of five different energy system models and analyzes the impact of Germany’s 2030 climate targets on the power system. The following two Chapters explore the effects of key drivers and influential factors on the German energy transition and transportation transition, in particular. Parametric sensitivity analysis is performed, highlighting areas with high impact which policy makers should focus on. It can be shown that demand reductions, next to costs of renewables and carbon prices, have the highest effect on multiple indicators relevant to the success of the energy transition. Across all chapters of this dissertation, different methodologies to account for various types of uncertainty are applied. The results showcase that, despite uncertain future developments, common findings can be found and no-regret options formulated. In doing so, this dissertation contributes to the ongoing scientific and public debate by showcasing possible pathways, chances, and barriers of the European and German energy transition. In addition, the principles of open science are followed, allowing other researchers or practitioners to validate the findings and use the applied methodologies.

Author dc:creator

• Hainsch, Karlo Benedikt

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Oei, Pao-Yu

Licence dc:rights.uri

• https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Language dc:language.iso

en

Identifier URI

https://doi.org/10.14279/depositonce-16650

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:depositonce.tu-berlin.de:11303/17861