Structures Strike Back: Their Significance for Our Models of Opinion Formation

Why do our models of opinion formation work in some situations but fail in others? In this dissertation, I explain that our models of opinion formation work in some cases but fail in others because of the structural level variations that are not accounted for when these models are designed only with individual level variables in mind. By structural level variations, I mean the societal conditions that affect everyone in a given society and which are typically measured by societal level variables. These variables, I argue, are as fundamental to the process of opinion formation as the individual level variations scholars focus on by default. In Chapter 1, I elaborate on the theoretical foundations of this argument and set the tone for the three empirical chapters that test my argument. In Chapter 2, I start testing my argument by engaging with the structural impact of socioeconomic development on elite directed opinion formation at the individual level in MENA countries. I use survey data collected by three waves of the Arab barometer between 2010 and 2016 to show that socioeconomic development reverses the correlation between political awareness and the adoption/rejection of party cues in Islamist publics. In Chapter 3, I address the structural impact of colonization on the model of secularization postulated by modernization theories based on individual material conditions in MENA countries. Based on 42 surveys delivered between 2000 and 2014, my findings suggest that postcolonial MENA societies do indeed break with the pattern predicted by modernization theorists. In Chapter 4, the last empirical chapter of this dissertation, I discuss the structural impact of different immigration systems on patterns of xenophobia predicted by the economic competition theory based on individual social class in MENA countries. Using data from 14 MENA countries gathered between 2000 and 2011, it argues that where immigration systems prevent the social mobility of migrants, as in the case of the kafala system, xenophobic attitudes develop among those with a higher as opposed to a lower socio-economic status. Chapter 5 concludes by outlining some of the key theoretical and methodological implications of these empirical findings.

Department dc:contributor.department

Political Science

Year dc:date.issued

2021

Author dc:creator

• Abdul Reda, Amir

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Cochrane, Christopher B.
• Ahmad, Aisha

• Hierarchical/Multilevel Models
• Middle Eastern North African Politics
• Opinion Formation
• Public Opinion
• Quantitative Methods
• Survey Data

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/1807/106455

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:utoronto.scholaris.ca:1807/106455