Deciding among models : a decision-theoretic view of model complexity

This research examines the trade-off between the cost of adding complexity to a model and the value added to the results within the context of decision-making. It seeks to determine how complex a model should be in order to fit it to the purpose at hand. The report begins with a discussion on general modeling theory and model complexity. It next considers the specific case of petroleum reservoir models and the existing research that has compared modeling results with model complexity levels. Finally, it presents original results applying Monte Carlo sampling to a drilling decision scenario and to a one-dimensional reservoir model where a cylindrical oil field is represented by different numbers of cells and the results compared.

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Science in Engineering

Level thesis:degree_level

Masters

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Operations Research and Industrial Engineering

Grantor

University of Texas at Austin

Year dc:date.issued

2010

Author dc:creator

• Mozano, Jennifer Maile

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Bickel, J. Eric

Committee member dc:contributor.committeemember

• Lake, Larry W.

• Complexity
• Model complexity
• Petroleum reservoir modeling
• Models for decision-making

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Handle dc:identifier.uri

http://hdl.handle.net/2152/ETD-UT-2010-05-821

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:repositories.lib.utexas.edu:2152/ETD-UT-2010-05-821