Essays on spatial economics and trade

Chapter 1 answers the question explores what the local and aggregate dynamic effects of regional migration flows are. To address this question, I combine a panel SVAR framework with a shift-share instrument based on lagged birth rates to analyze the short-, medium-, and long-term impacts of a 1% increase in migration to U.S. commuting zones. My estimates indicate that these inflows raise wages and output per worker, with effects peaking between 0.2% and 0.3% over time. However, the most substantial impact is observed in housing prices, which reach a long-run level 0.9% higher than pre-shock levels. To assess whether these local effects translate into significant aggregate outcomes, I examine labor "deportation" and "relocation" through the prism of a dynamic spatial model that I estimate through impulse response matching to the empirical findings. The deportation scenario removes workers unevenly across regions, resulting in a long-term reduction in aggregate output of 1%. In contrast, the relocation scenario redistributes these workers across other regions in the country. Although this redistribution does not alter the steady state, it can lead to a temporary output decline of up to 1%, with recovery times exceeding 50 years, depending on the skill composition of relocated workers. Chapter 2 examines the extent to which insurance market dynamics shape migration patterns generating a climate-resilient spatial distribution of population. Using state-level data, I analyze the interactions between private and government-provided HOI markets and their relationship to household migration decisions. To identify the causal impact of insurance availability on migration, I employ an instrumental variable approach utilizing exogenous storm events affecting neighboring counties. Results demonstrate that a 1% increase in insurance non-renewals within a county leads to a 0.1% rise in the outflow rate, while inflow rates remain largely unaffected. These findings suggest that, although disruptions in HOI markets directly influence households' decisions to leave climate-vulnerable areas, they have limited effect on disincentivizing new residents from moving to these regions. This highlights a crucial mechanism through which climate risk can reshape regional population dynamics. Finally, Chapter 3 examines whether supply chain shocks eventually dissipate, with transitory effects on aggregate variables in small open economies. It investigates the macroeconomic effects of maritime transportation shocks in the case of Chile. Leveraging high-frequency customs data and port-level statistics, I identify these shocks using a strategy based on the inelastic short-term supply of vessels embeded in a SVAR framework. I then use local projections to estimate the dynamic impact of shipping disruptions on trade flows, industrial production, employment, and prices. The results reveal that maritime shocks significantly affect both port operations and broader macroeconomic aggregates, with notable implications for trade patterns, producer prices, and sectoral output.

Name thesis:degree_name

Doctor of Philosophy

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Economics

Grantor

The University of Texas at Austin

Year dc:date.issued

2025

Author dc:creator

• Parraguez Tala, Alejandro

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya
• Drenik, Andres

• Spatial economics
• International trade

Identifier URI

https://doi.org/10.26153/tsw/61381

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:repositories.lib.utexas.edu:2152/134054