The Effects of Spatial Aggregation on Spatial Time Series Modeling and Forecasting

Spatio-temporal data analysis involves modeling a variable observed at different locations over time. A key component of space-time modeling is determining the spatial scale of the data. This dissertation addresses the following three questions: 1) How does spatial aggregation impact the properties of the variable and its model? 2) What spatial scale of the data produces more accurate forecasts of the aggregate variable? 3) What properties lead to the smallest information loss due to spatial aggregation? Answers to these questions involve a thorough examination of two common space-time models: the STARMA and GSTARMA models. These results are helpful to researchers seeking to understand the impact of spatial aggregation on temporal and spatial correlation as well as to modelers interested in determining a spatial scale for the data. Two data examples are included to illustrate the findings, and they concern states' annual labor force totals and monthly burglary counts for police districts in the city of Philadelphia.

Grantor dc:publisher

Temple University. Libraries

Year dc:date.issued

2016

Author dc:creator

• Gehman, Andrew J.

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Wei, William W. S.

Committee members dc:contributor.committeemember

• Krafty, Robert T.
• Dong, Yuexiao
• Chervoneva, Inna

• Statistics
• Economics
• Geography
• Forecasting
• Spatial aggregation
• Spatial scale
• Spatio-temporal

Statement dc:rights

• IN COPYRIGHT- This Rights Statement can be used for an Item that is in copyright. Using this statement implies that the organization making this Item available has determined that the Item is in copyright and either is the rights-holder, has obtained permission from the rights-holder(s) to make their Work(s) available, or makes the Item available under an exception or limitation to copyright (including Fair Use) that entitles it to make the Item available.

Licence dc:rights.uri

• http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/

Language dc:language.iso

eng

Dc Identifier Other

965642376

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:scholarshare.temple.edu:20.500.12613/1282