Evaluating the Impact of Local Vaccine Manufacturing on the Resilience and Responsiveness of the Vaccine Supply Chain: A Case Study within South Africa
The COVID-19 pandemic revealed significant vulnerabilities in global vaccine supply chains, particularly in low- and middle-income countries dependent on imports. In South Africa, supply disruptions delayed access to essential vaccines, demonstrating the critical need for resilient and responsive vaccine distribution systems. Vaccines remain one of the most effective public health interventions. Plotkin et al., (2008) emphasized that “Except for safe water, no other modality, not even antibiotics, has had such a major effect on mortality reduction,” highlighting the importance of an efficient vaccine supply chain. Despite improvements in logistics and procurement, South Africa’s vaccine supply chain has continued to face challenges during periods of increased demand, including stockouts and delays in vaccine rollout. Local vaccine manufacturing was proposed as a potential strategy to enhance supply chain resilience and responsiveness, reducing dependency on international suppliers and mitigating the effects of global disruptions. This study aimed to evaluate how transitioning from an imported vaccine supply model to locally manufactured vaccines would affect the resilience and responsiveness of South Africa’s vaccine supply chain. The research adopted a simulation-based approach to model vaccine supply chains under a range of operational conditions. Two supply chain configurations were examined: a fully import-dependent system and a hybrid system integrating local mRNA vaccine production. The simulation model was developed using AnyLogistix, which enabled detailed representation of production facilities, inventory policies, distribution networks, and transportation paths. Key performance indicators, including service level, lead time, inventory fluctuations, and backorders, were monitored to evaluate resilience and responsiveness. Scenario analyses included sudden increases in vaccine demand, delays in import arrivals, and partial disruptions in manufacturing capacity to replicate real-world pandemic conditions. The findings demonstrated that local vaccine production enhanced the responsiveness of the supply chain by enabling faster delivery to regional sites during demand surges. When combined with imported vaccines, local production improved overall resilience by maintaining continuity of supply during international disruptions. Simulation results showed that single-line production facilities could not meet national demand independently, underscoring the need for sufficiently scaled manufacturing and strategic partnerships for technology transfer. Effective inventory management through distribution centres facilitated timely allocation of vaccines to healthcare facilities, reducing backorders and increasing service levels across the network. With a fully operational mRNA platform such as the Afrigen hub, South Africa could initiate limited local mRNA vaccine production within six to nine months of a future pandemic onset and achieve commercial-scale output within twelve to eighteen months, provided that pre-existing GMP capacity, regulatory readiness, and supply chain access were maintained. The study concluded that local vaccine manufacturing, when adequately scaled and integrated with imports, provides measurable benefits for the resilience and responsiveness of the South African vaccine supply chain. These findings offer actionable insights for policymakers and industry stakeholders to develop robust, adaptive, and pandemic-ready vaccine distribution systems.
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