Energy Transition Challenges: Solar PV Module and Wind Turbine Waste in South Africa to 2050

South Africa's renewable energy (RE) sector has grown exponentially over the past 15 years to meet the country's energy needs at least cost. This growth gives rise to an accumulating RE equipment waste stream from operational breakages and end-of-life decommissioning. These emergent waste streams are relatively new in terms of public and industry awareness and, despite Extended Producer Responsibility (EPR) legislation introduced in 2021, several uncertainties remain that may impact the effectiveness of RE waste management. Moreover, the magnitude of anticipated waste streams up to 2050 has yet to be rigorously quantified. This is a vital first step to informing future waste policy decisions. This study adopted a mixed-method approach. Phase 1 involved semi-structured interviews and an online survey providing qualitative data. Phase 2 involved quantitative scenario modelling using material flow analysis and Weibull distributions derived from empirical data and industry insights. Phases 3 and 4 integrated the methods through thematic analysis to explore the key levers pivotal to RE equipment waste management in South Africa. The study projects that annual solar PV module waste will reach 85 - 185 kt per year by 2050 (4.26 - 9.27 million modules), driven by a decommissioning wave as first-generation utility-scale plants reach end of life from the early 2040s. Wind turbine blade waste is projected to reach 1108 - 1550 blades per year by 2050, with an increasing CFRP material share and no established recycling pathway currently in place. Previous studies relied on simplified lifetime models and did not account for the evolution of module technology. This study provides a breakdown of waste by material composition, technology market segment, and value of recoverable materials under both regular loss and early loss scenarios. South Africa's current RE waste management capacity of 4 -7 kt per year is projected to be sufficient only through the mid-2030s for solar PV modules, whereas wind turbine waste management remains undeveloped. Qualitative themes including the processing bottleneck, walking the regulatory tightrope, and scattered responsibility were identified. When synthesized with modelling results, they demonstrate the need for coordinated stakeholder action. Recommendations include product-specific EPR targets, enforcement of non-compliance penalties, and a phased implementation roadmap for advanced recycling capacity.

Grantor dc:publisher

Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University

Year dc:date.issued

2026

Author dc:creator

• Poorun, Argon

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Davies, Megan
• Brent, Alan

Language dc:language.iso

en

Repository record dc:identifier.uri

https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/135928

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/135928