Quality-of-Life Indicators, Income and Out-Migration Intentions in Gauteng: An Individual- and Ward-Level Analysis

This thesis investigates the influence of perceived quality-of-life indicators, specifically government performance satisfaction, safety perceptions and service delivery satisfaction, on residents’ intentions to migrate from Gauteng. While Gauteng has historically been studied as a destination region due to its economic weight in South Africa, this research shifts the analytical focus to exploring out-migration intentions. Three interrelated questions are addressed: To what extent do the three quality-of-life indicators shape migration intentions from Gauteng? What role, if any, does income play in these migration intentions? And are migration intentions influenced by neighbouring wards or local social networks? The study utilises the Gauteng City-Region Observatory’s Quality of Life Survey Round 7 (2023 to 2024), which provides weighted, ward-level data. The empirical strategy employs both individual-level Linear Probability Models (LPM) and ward-level spatial regression frameworks to analyse micro-level behaviour and macro-level geographic patterns. Respondents are stratified into low-, middle-, and high-income groups, addressing a major limitation in past literature that often treats migrants as a homogeneous group. Results reveal that satisfaction with government performance is the most consistent and significant determinant of migration intentions at both the individual and ward levels. Safety perceptions also act as a strong push factor at the individual level. While satisfaction with service delivery is ambiguous, dissatisfaction with sewerage services was found to be a significant predictor of migration intentions, potentially because this service cannot be privately subsidised. Higher income individuals are significantly more likely to express the desire to leave the province and to emigrate, reflecting enhanced resources and capability to act on their dissatisfaction. Lastly, ward-level spatial models demonstrate that while quality-of-life conditions in neighbouring wards do not significantly shape migration desires, migration intentions themselves are contagious across neighbouring wards. Ultimately, this thesis concludes that Gauteng’s status as prime economic destination is fragile. High levels of disillusionment with governance and concerns about safety are actively pushing out residents, especially those in higher income brackets. Attracting and retaining residents requires credible governance and safer neighbourhoods, beyond merely offering economic opportunities.

Grantor dc:publisher

Stellenbosch : Stellenbosch University

Year dc:date.issued

2026

Author dc:creator

• Ranwell, Kara

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Von Fintel, Dieter

Language dc:language.iso

en

Repository record dc:identifier.uri

https://scholar.sun.ac.za/handle/10019.1/135913

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:scholar.sun.ac.za:10019.1/135913