Homicide Clearance in England and Wales: Understanding the National Decline

The aim of this research is to critically explore the declining homicide clearance rate across England and Wales since 2011, and to identify what factors have contributed to this downturn. Homicide clearance is often used as a barometer of police effectiveness and a sustained decline in clearance can pose serious implications for victims’ families and loved ones, public trust and confidence in the police, and crime deterrence. This thesis represents the first comprehensive exploration of this phenomenon in England and Wales, and thus provides a novel contribution to knowledge. <br/><br/>To achieve the research aim, a mixed-methods design was employed. First, statistical analysis of an extract of the Home Office Homicide Index, containing data on 6,229 currently recorded homicide victims, identified which victim and offence characteristics were associated with higher or lower odds of case clearance. Additionally, qualitative analysis of transcripts from interviews with 31 criminal justice actors and 24 homicide casefiles provided breadth and depth of understanding of what factors were driving the downturn over time. <br/><br/>The findings identified a convergence of environmental, organisational, cultural and procedural factors contributing to the decline in the homicide clearance rate. Most notably these included an increased culture of risk-averse recording practices which has manifested as the increased recording of borderline cases as homicide and an increasing reluctance to cancel these once recorded for fear of scrutiny. Additionally, the findings highlight a change in the nature and composition of homicide since 2011, marked by an increase in the proportion of homicides which are inherently hard to solve, such as gang-related homicide. Furthermore, the overwhelming growth in the volume and complexity of digital data was underscored by challenges related to depleted resources and the impacts of austerity, which appear to have constrained the investigative capacity and capabilities in response to homicide.

Name dc:type.qualificationname

Doctoral Thesis

Level dc:type.qualificationlevel

Student thesis

Year dc:date.issued

2026

Author dc:creator

• Nicholls, Rebecca

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Brookman, Fiona
• Jones, Helen

Language dc:language

eng

Identifier

oai:pure.atira.dk:studenttheses/faaa80e3-4b86-41f1-a6e2-93bdb3c6bba4

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:pure.atira.dk:studenttheses/faaa80e3-4b86-41f1-a6e2-93bdb3c6bba4