International migration flow table estimation

A methodology is developed to estimate comparable international migration flows between a set of countries. International migration flow data may be missing, reported by the sending country, reported by the receiving country or reported by both the sending and receiving countries. For the last situation, reported counts rarely match due to differences in definitions and data collection systems. In this thesis, reported counts are harmonized using correction factors estimated from a constrained optimization procedure. Factors are applied to scale data known to be of a reliable standard, creating an incomplete migration flow table of harmonized values. Cells for which no reliable reported flows exist are then estimated from a negative binomial regression model fitted using the Expectation-Maximization (EM) type algorithm. Covariate information for this model is drawn from international migration theory. Finally, measures of precision for all missing cell estimates are derived using the Supplemented EM algorithm. Recent data on international migration between countries in Europe are used to illustrate the methodology. The results represent a complete table of comparable flows that can be used by regional policy makers and social scientist alike to better understand population behaviour and change.

Name dc:type.qualificationname

Ph.D.

Level dc:type.qualificationlevel

doctoral

Grantor dc:publisher.institution

University of Southampton

Year dc:date.issued

2009

Author dc:creator

• Abel, Guy J.

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Raymer, James
• Smith, Peter