Species Distribution Modeling for Arid Adapted Habitat Specialists in Zion National Park

<p>The Arizona toad (<em>Anaxyrus microscaphus) </em>and Jones’ waxy dogbane (<em>Cycladenia humilis </em>var<em>. jonesii</em>) are habitat specialists with historical ranges in the desert southwest and specifically, Zion National Park (ZION). The machine learning method, MaxEnt, constructed species distribution models (SDMs) in ZION for the two study species at 30 m and 900 m spatial resolutions using climate, topographic, and remotely sensed data. Additionally, 900 m forecasting models were constructed to observe the shifts in suitable habitat for the years 2050 and 2070, based off two representative concentration pathway scenarios. Results indicate promising predictive power for both high resolution models (30m) for <em>C. humilis </em>var<em>. jonesii </em>and <em>A. microscaphus </em>with area under curve (AUC) test analysis of 0.715 and 0.810, respectively. Forecasting models displayed decreasing suitability for <em>A. microscaphus</em> with both climate scenarios applied to the model. However, <em>C. humilis </em>var<em>. jonesii</em> habitat increased with future scenarios applied to the MaxEnt models.</p>

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Science - Environmental Sciences

Level thesis:degree_level

Thesis

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Environmental Science

Year dc:date.available

2020

Authors dc:creator

• Driver, Sam
• Schalk, Chris M
• Unger, Daniel
• Kulhavy, David

Contributors dc:contributor

• Dr. Daniel Unger
• Dr. David Kulhavy
• Dr. Christopher Schalk

• Desert Ecology
• Environmental Studies
• Geomorphology
• Natural Resources and Conservation
• Other Earth Sciences

Repository record dc:identifier

https://scholarworks.sfasu.edu/etds/354

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:scholarworks.sfasu.edu:etds-1383