A phenomenological study on decision-making under uncertainty in real estate investments in sub-Saharan Africa
Over a period of time, the researcher observed that real estate investment decisions were made under uncertainty in sub-Saharan Africa, and that this was due to unreliable and outdated economic and market data. The phenomenological study was an investigation of the investment decision phenomenon on how real estate investment decisions were made under uncertainty in sub-Saharan Africa. Firstly, through reflection on the phenomenon and research question, the researcher was able to place the phenomenon in the correct epistemological framework from which the methodology and methods were selected. Phenomenological research was chosen and an interpretive qualitative research methodology applied. The literature was reviewed widely, from Von Neumann and Morgenstein to Kahneman and Tversky. The focus of the literature review was on expected utility theory, decision making under uncertainty and behavioural finance. Interviews were applied as the primary method of data collection during which co-researchers gave descriptions of their experience of the phenomenon. The data was analysed, as described by Moustakas and other researchers, and conclusions were drawn. NVIVO software was also applied to enable an in-depth analysis of the data structures and essences. From the essences, a descriptive method was identified and a risk uncertainty matrix developed. The risk-uncertainty matrix could be applied universally in similar real estate investment environments as those in the data sample (namely, in conditions akin to those of sub-Saharan Africa). The findings of the research, from the analysis of the descriptions given by the co-researchers, confirmed that there was a lack of credible economic and market data in practice. From the case studies analysis, it was evident that the decision process was subjective and depended, to a great extent, on the experience of the decision-maker and their intuition. Biases and heuristics were evident in the descriptions of the researcher and co-researchers’ experiences. The research confirmed its original contribution to knowledge by identifying a descriptive matrix for decision-making under uncertainty in real estate investment in sub-Saharan Africa.
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