Modelling the Future of Clean and Transitional Energy Systems from Conventional Fossil Fuel Development
The continuously increasing demand for energy has resulted in the fast depletion of conventional energy sources, resulting in a high degree of environmental issues worldwide. This thesis consists of a review and model development to determine the opportunities and impacts (i.e. cumulative equivalent CO2 emissions produced) of implementing various clean and transitional energy systems within the context of a large scale power facility (the Boundary Dam Plant, in Canada). Based on conducted work, it was recommended that there was potential for co-generation facilities using renewable energy systems (i.e. biogas) equipped with carbon capture and storage. An emission forecasting model was developed to incorporating the long term production of emissions from the construction, operations and potential closure of an existing coal-fired and NGCC facilities, while considering the emission impacts of technological implementation, demand market requirements, and long term emission impacts within the atmosphere. The technologies had been evaluated on the basis of effective plant capacity (GW) and cumulative plant equivalent CO2 emissions (tonnes/GWh). Modelling metrics were applied to the Boundary Dam Power Station in Saskatchewan, Canada, an existing coal-fired power plant and site of the world’s first commercial CCS facility. The plant has been assessed on the basis that natural gas conversion of the facility will happen within the next 4 years, due to provincial and national regulatory and demand constraints. Based on the results provided by means of the developed model for the 15 year projection, it was concluded that the best development for the Boundary Dam facility (lowest cumulative equivalent CO2 emissions while meeting downstream energy demand over the projected timeframe) was to begin the construction and operation of a Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) plant equipped with CCS on the operating turbines. Alternatively, if these cases were analysed at a 35 year scenario, the best development was through the construction and operation of a NGCC biogas integrated plant equipped with CCS on the operating turbines.
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Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research, University of Regina