Predicting Hockey Success: The Western Hockey League Bantam Draft and Ontario Hockey League Priority Selection

The successful identification of talent and the ability to build a solid foundation of players are essential elements in developing winning athletic programs (Gee, Marshall, & King, 2010). In the Western Hockey League (WHL), players are eligible to be drafted at the conclusion of their second year of bantam hockey – the year they turn 15 years old. In the Ontario Hockey League (OHL), players are eligible to be selected one year later than the WHL – at the conclusion of their first year of midget hockey. The present study explored relations between player size, birth date and selection order in the WHL and OHL drafts and whether or not selection order predicted future success as a hockey player. Players born earlier in the year, and heavier (WHL and OHL) and taller (OHL) players were selected earlier in both the WHL and OHL drafts. Players selected earlier in their respective drafts were also advantaged over later picks with respect to the future success achieved in the game. Players drafted in the OHL were more likely to play at a higher level, which may in part be a result of the later draft, compared to the WHL. The present findings suggest that current draft procedures are successful in that players who are drafted higher tend to achieve higher levels of success. However, it is not possible to determine if this is due to potentially successful players not being provided with the opportunity to achieve similar success because they were not drafted high or not drafted at all. An important implication of the work is to encourage structural changes to hockey leagues that will minimize age differences within groupings. Minimally, scouts should be made aware of the tendency to perhaps over-emphasize larger players, both directly through size and through players born relatively earlier than their competitors, so they can consider how such information factors into their own decisions

Name thesis:degree_name

Master of Science (MSc)

Level thesis:degree_level

Master's

Discipline thesis:degree_discipline

Kinesiology and Health Studies

Grantor dc:publisher

Faculty of Graduate Studies and Research, University of Regina

Year dc:date.issued

2015

Author dc:creator

• Atkinson, Curtis Ryan

Advisors dc:contributor.advisor

• Hoeber, Larena
• Riemer, Harold

Committee member dc:contributor.committeemember

• Kulczycki, Cory

Language dc:language.iso

en

DOI

https://doi.org/10.82465/5039

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:uregina.scholaris.ca:10294/6559