A technology impact forecasting framework for the comparative life cycle cost and carbon assessment of alternative bus fleets
type: CreativeWork
description: A modal shift from private to public transport, such as increased use of buses, and adoption of alternative powertrain technologies (e.g. diesel-hybrids and battery-electric), are key solutions for mitigating the impacts of climate change, whilst reducing fossil energy dependency and urban congestion and improving air quality. However, there are risks and uncertainties in introducing alternative fleet technologies. Bus operators are faced with significant economic and environmental challenges in identifying technologies that reduce or achieve total-cost-of-ownership parity and mitigate air quality and greenhouse-gas emissions from a well-to-wheels or life cycle perspective. New technologies further present operational challenges; the need for sufficient vehicle range, recharging/refuelling capabilities and similar passenger capacities to meet public service requirements. Bus operators would benefit from a tool that rapidly and clearly analyses the costs and benefits of technologies that could affect these economic, environmental, and operational challenges they face. A need therefore exists for a system-wide assessment tool for quantifying the life cycle impacts of alternative bus fleet technologies. The aim of this research was to design a novel framework to assist decision-makers in assessing the uncertainty (a state of limited knowledge) and risk (the probability of an outcome) of the life cycle impacts of alternative bus technologies. The developed framework combines technology impact forecasting, computer modelling and statistical analysis techniques, to enable a greater understanding of the direct and indirect impacts of technologies at an early stage of research and development, where all parameters may not be fully defined. This framework will assist with the complex decision-making process for stakeholders of bus fleets and further allow manufacturers to identify which technologies to invest in, decide where to assign resources appropriately to remain compe…
abstract: A modal shift from private to public transport, such as increased use of buses, and adoption of alternative powertrain technologies (e.g. diesel-hybrids and battery-electric), are key solutions for mitigating the impacts of climate change, whilst reducing fossil energy dependency and urban congestion and improving air quality. However, there are risks and uncertainties in introducing alternative fleet technologies. Bus operators are faced with significant economic and environmental challenges in identifying technologies that reduce or achieve total-cost-of-ownership parity and mitigate air quality and greenhouse-gas emissions from a well-to-wheels or life cycle perspective. New technologies further present operational challenges; the need for sufficient vehicle range, recharging/refuelling capabilities and similar passenger capacities to meet public service requirements. Bus operators would benefit from a tool that rapidly and clearly analyses the costs and benefits of technologies that could affect these economic, environmental, and operational challenges they face. A need therefore exists for a system-wide assessment tool for quantifying the life cycle impacts of alternative bus fleet technologies. The aim of this research was to design a novel framework to assist decision-makers in assessing the uncertainty (a state of limited knowledge) and risk (the probability of an outcome) of the life cycle impacts of alternative bus technologies. The developed framework combines technology impact forecasting, computer modelling and statistical analysis techniques, to enable a greater understanding of the direct and indirect impacts of technologies at an early stage of research and development, where all parameters may not be fully defined. This framework will assist with the complex decision-making process for stakeholders of bus fleets and further allow manufacturers to identify which technologies to invest in, decide where to assign resources appropriately to remain compe…
author: Harris, Andrew
language: eng
keywords: Technology impact forecasting, life cycle cost, greenhouse gas emissions, bus fleets, life cycle analysis, battery electric vehicles, hybrid vehicles, risk and uncertainty, public transport
date published: 2021-7
date modified: 2026-07-24T03:55:38Z
provider: Queen's University Belfast
publisher: Networked Digital Library of Theses and Dissertations
type: WebPage
source organization: Queen's University Belfast