500 Miles from Cheap Gas: Estimating Consumer Savings from Pipeline Access in New England

Despite sitting less than 200 miles from the Marcellus Shale, the most productive shale basin in the U.S., Boston consistently pays among the highest natural gas prices in the contiguous U.S. (64% higher in 2024). This premium reflects not upstream supply costs, but a structural pipeline disconnect driven by repeated expansion failures and dependence on expensive LNG imports during peak demand. Using Chicago Citygate as a counterfactual hub, this study estimates Boston’s average additional expenditure over 2020–2025 as a result of this pipeline disconnect. Utilizing a multivariate linear regression and controlling for comparable supply and demand conditions, we find that Boston spends between an additional $1.31 and $3.09/MMBtu on natural gas. Extensions find that regional renewable growth has not meaningfully re- duced natural gas demand, and that consumer spending from pipeline re- straints currently exceed projected carbon savings.

Author dc:creator

• Geddy Lucier

Advisor dc:contributor.advisor

• Dr. Jane Dmochowski

• Environmental Studies

Licence dc:rights.uri

• https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/

Repository record dc:identifier.uri

https://repository.upenn.edu/handle/20.500.14332/62567

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:repository.upenn.edu:20.500.14332/62567