{"id":{"repo_id":"penn","oai_identifier":"oai:repository.upenn.edu:20.500.14332/58704"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/penn/oai:repository.upenn.edu:20.500.14332/58704","repository":{"repo_id":"penn","name":"University of Pennsylvania","base_url":"https://repository.upenn.edu/server/oai/request"},"display":{"title":"Profitability in Sports Betting: A Case Study of Men's Tennis","abstract":"This paper evaluates the feasibility of profit generation through sports betting. While sports gambling represents a large and rapidly growing economic sector, few bettors are actually profitable and there is limited evidence of successful publicly available strategies. We investigate how such a strategy can be built for the game of men’s tennis. Our methodology for creating a strategy consists of two components. First, it includes a predictive analytics component, in which we combine a large number of observable player, match, and tournament characteristics in order to estimate the probability of either player winning the match. We study both linear and non-linear multivariate combination approaches. Second, our methodology contains a financial strategy component, in which we focus on using money allocation techniques to achieve optimal returns. Through statistical simulations and back-testing, we find that it is possible to generate positive expected profits at sustainable levels of risk, with both formal and informal strategies. Interestingly, we also establish that building a successful strategy does not necessarily require the bettor’s model to have higher predictive accuracy than the betting markets. Instead, bettors can focus on a narrow segment of matches (for example “upsets” – i.e., matches in which the lower-ranked player wins) and outperform the market in that segment alone. We conclude that sports betting can be used as a profitable investment vehicle. Beyond tennis, these techniques can be applied to most other sports, especially those for which large volumes of historical data are publicly available.","abstract_html":"This paper evaluates the feasibility of profit generation through sports betting. While sports gambling represents a large and rapidly growing economic sector, few bettors are actually profitable and there is limited evidence of successful publicly available strategies. We investigate how such a strategy can be built for the game of men’s tennis. Our methodology for creating a strategy consists of two components. First, it includes a predictive analytics component, in which we combine a large number of observable player, match, and tournament characteristics in order to estimate the probability of either player winning the match. We study both linear and non-linear multivariate combination approaches. Second, our methodology contains a financial strategy component, in which we focus on using money allocation techniques to achieve optimal returns. Through statistical simulations and back-testing, we find that it is possible to generate positive expected profits at sustainable levels of risk, with both formal and informal strategies. Interestingly, we also establish that building a successful strategy does not necessarily require the bettor’s model to have higher predictive accuracy than the betting markets. Instead, bettors can focus on a narrow segment of matches (for example “upsets” – i.e., matches in which the lower-ranked player wins) and outperform the market in that segment alone. We conclude that sports betting can be used as a profitable investment vehicle. Beyond tennis, these techniques can be applied to most other sports, especially those for which large volumes of historical data are publicly available.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Ciobanu, Robert"],"institution":null,"degree_name":null,"degree_level":null,"degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":["Eric Bradlow"],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2023,"date_issued":"2023-01-01","date_published":"2023-01-01","updated_at":"2026-07-24T03:47:17Z","subjects":[],"languages":[],"rights":[],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"https://repository.upenn.edu/handle/20.500.14332/58704","outbound_label":"Repository record","outbound_source":"dc:identifier.uri"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:contributor.advisor","label":"Advisor","values":["Eric Bradlow"]},{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Ciobanu, Robert"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:date","label":"Dc Date","values":["2023-06-03T00:16:06.000"]},{"key":"dc:date.accessioned","label":"Dc Date Accessioned","values":["2023-06-12T22:40:36Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.available","label":"Dc Date Available","values":["2023-06-12T22:40:36Z"]},{"key":"dc:date.issued","label":"Date","values":["2023-01-01"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["Dissertation/Thesis"]}]},{"id":"identifiers","label":"Identifiers","entries":[{"key":"dc:identifier.uri","label":"Identifier URI","values":["https://repository.upenn.edu/handle/20.500.14332/58704"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["This paper evaluates the feasibility of profit generation through sports betting. While sports gambling represents a large and rapidly growing economic sector, few bettors are actually profitable and there is limited evidence of successful publicly available strategies. We investigate how such a strategy can be built for the game of men’s tennis. Our methodology for creating a strategy consists of two components. First, it includes a predictive analytics component, in which we combine a large number of observable player, match, and tournament characteristics in order to estimate the probability of either player winning the match. We study both linear and non-linear multivariate combination approaches. Second, our methodology contains a financial strategy component, in which we focus on using money allocation techniques to achieve optimal returns. Through statistical simulations and back-testing, we find that it is possible to generate positive expected profits at sustainable levels of risk, with both formal and informal strategies. Interestingly, we also establish that building a successful strategy does not necessarily require the bettor’s model to have higher predictive accuracy than the betting markets. Instead, bettors can focus on a narrow segment of matches (for example “upsets” – i.e., matches in which the lower-ranked player wins) and outperform the market in that segment alone. We conclude that sports betting can be used as a profitable investment vehicle. Beyond tennis, these techniques can be applied to most other sports, especially those for which large volumes of historical data are publicly available."]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Profitability in Sports Betting: A Case Study of Men's Tennis"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:contributor.advisor":["Eric Bradlow"],"dc:creator":["Ciobanu, Robert"],"dc:date":["2023-06-03T00:16:06.000"],"dc:date.accessioned":["2023-06-12T22:40:36Z"],"dc:date.available":["2023-06-12T22:40:36Z"],"dc:date.issued":["2023-01-01"],"dc:description.abstract":["This paper evaluates the feasibility of profit generation through sports betting. While sports gambling represents a large and rapidly growing economic sector, few bettors are actually profitable and there is limited evidence of successful publicly available strategies. We investigate how such a strategy can be built for the game of men’s tennis. Our methodology for creating a strategy consists of two components. First, it includes a predictive analytics component, in which we combine a large number of observable player, match, and tournament characteristics in order to estimate the probability of either player winning the match. We study both linear and non-linear multivariate combination approaches. Second, our methodology contains a financial strategy component, in which we focus on using money allocation techniques to achieve optimal returns. Through statistical simulations and back-testing, we find that it is possible to generate positive expected profits at sustainable levels of risk, with both formal and informal strategies. Interestingly, we also establish that building a successful strategy does not necessarily require the bettor’s model to have higher predictive accuracy than the betting markets. Instead, bettors can focus on a narrow segment of matches (for example “upsets” – i.e., matches in which the lower-ranked player wins) and outperform the market in that segment alone. We conclude that sports betting can be used as a profitable investment vehicle. Beyond tennis, these techniques can be applied to most other sports, especially those for which large volumes of historical data are publicly available."],"dc:identifier.uri":["https://repository.upenn.edu/handle/20.500.14332/58704"],"dc:title":["Profitability in Sports Betting: A Case Study of Men's Tennis"],"dc:type":["Dissertation/Thesis"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-24T03:47:17Z"}