THE EFFECT OF AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS ON CROPPING PATTERNS/AREA UNDER CROPS, VIRTUAL LAND EXPORTS AND EXPORT-ORIENTED DISPLACEMENT OF GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS (GHGEs): 1961-2013

Purpose: Theoretically, this study investigates the globalisation of the world economy and the integration of the agriculture of developing countries into the structure of the globalised economy. Empirically, this study investigates the impact of this globalisation on agricultural exports from developing countries and their impact on the greenhouse gas emissions (GHGEs). It does this by examining for two of the most populated countries from the three developing regions of the world (China and India from Asia, Brazil and Mexico from Latin America, and Ethiopia and Nigeria from Africa) the impact of agricultural exports on the cropping patterns for each of the years between 1961 to 2013, and the relative contribution of agricultural extensification and intensification to crop production. The study quantifies the virtual land (VL) required to produce the agricultural exports and then assesses the GHGEs from these agricultural exports in the six countries. Design/methodology/approach: The archives and database of the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) constituted the major source of the empirical data examined here. This database includes both publicly available data as well as archives of the database which are no longer publicly available. Special permission for access to publicly unavailable data was asked for and granted. The study examines the impact of agricultural exports on the cropping patterns for each of the years between 1961 to 2013 by using four categories newly developed for this purpose, and estimates the relative contribution of agricultural extensification and intensification to crop production taking place in the six countries using a newly developed agricultural extensification-intensification index. It also quantifies the VL by using a new approach of modified extraction-rate-based method (without double counting) required to produce the agricultural exports and then assesses the GHGEs from these agricultural exports by using a mix of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier 1 and Tier 2 methodologies. Results: Using the four newly developed categories, it was observed that agricultural exports affect the cropping pattern by either resulting in expansion of the area, restricting of area or stagnation of area under crop/s. The newly developed agricultural extensification-intensification index showed that agriculture extensification contributed relatively more towards crop production in Brazil, Mexico, and Nigeria while agricultural intensification contributed more to China, India, and Ethiopia. Compared with 1961, in the year 2013 total agricultural exports and virtual land exports (VLEs) increased for all the countries except for Nigeria. The newly developed VLE to Export Ratio shows that land used per unit of export has declined for all the countries except for Nigeria. The GHGEs from agricultural exports increased for all countries with India and Brazil having the largest emissions. Implications: Cropping pattern change, agricultural intensification and agricultural extensification and the GHGEs from agricultural exports have environmental implications. The countries in the study could use these findings towards minimising these adverse environmental implications, reducing GHGEs and moving towards sustainable agriculture. The newly developed original methods presented in the study can be used by wider academic, research and policy institutions to conduct further research in the field by examining other countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America. By examining the two most populated countries from each of these three continents, this study has set the template for the proposed further studies.

Grantor dc:publisher

Oxford Brookes University

Year dc:date

2023

Author dc:creator

• Mann, Rajkamal Singh

Contributors dc:contributor

• Singh, Pritam
• le Roux, Sara

Statement dc:rights

• All rights reserved

Language dc:language

en

DOI dc:identifier

https://doi.org/10.24384/hy21-8d60

OAI identifier oai:identifier

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