The use of hourly, rather than averaged, data time series modelling to improve projections of power usage and demand in California through to 2030

This thesis presents a comprehensive life-cycle and net energy analysis of California’s energy transition, focused on two major developments: the large-scale deployment of photovoltaic (PV) systems with lithium-ion battery (LIB) storage and the widespread adoption of battery electric vehicles (BEVs). These changes are central to California’s climate and energy goals of reaching 60% renewable electricity by 2030, 100% by 2045, and full zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) adoption for new sales by 2035. Using detailed hourly data on electricity generation and demand for 2018, the first part of this work models a 2030 scenario featuring an 80% net renewable grid. The model assumes 43.7 GW of installed PV capacity—about 52% of the state's domestic production—alongside the retirement of all single-cycle gas turbines and nuclear plants, and a 30% reduction in combined-cycle gas turbine output relative to 2018. The analysis shows that approximately 25% of renewable electricity would be temporarily stored in LIB systems, with only 2.8% curtailed. Environmental impacts are greatly reduced: life-cycle carbon emissions are halved, non-renewable primary energy consumption drops by 66%, and the grid’s energy return on investment improves by 10%. The second part of the thesis examines the interaction between high PV penetration and large-scale BEV adoption. Employing an original grid balancing model that integrates historical generation and demand profiles with projected BEV charging patterns, five future scenarios for 2030 are evaluated. Results demonstrate that even under the highest BEV adoption rates, California’s grid can sustain the additional load without compromising stability or sustainability. Life-cycle carbon emissions remain below 110 g CO₂-equivalent per kilowatt-hour, and energy return on investment (EROIₚₑ₋ₑq) remains strong, between 12 and 16. Overall, the findings confirm the technical, environmental, and energetic viability of California’s dual transition to renewable electricity and electrified transportation. By simultaneously expanding renewable generation and accommodating BEV charging, California can achieve deep decarbonization while preserving high life-cycle energy efficiency.

Grantor dc:publisher

Oxford Brookes University

Author dc:creator

• Peluso, Alessio

Contributors dc:contributor

• Raugei, Marco

Statement dc:rights

• All rights reserved

Language dc:language

en

DOI dc:identifier

https://doi.org/10.24384/ev9c-7y95

OAI identifier oai:identifier

tle:52ccf715-7407-4d9f-befc-3cd50900e06d:d6bd9758-527a-46cd-bfe2-c433766e8fca:1