Anticipatory Thinking and Sensemaking for Educational Design in an Era of Disruption: General Morphological Analysis Applied to Global Service Learning

This thesis presents an autoethnographic exploration of anticipatory thinking and sensemaking in educational design amid disruption, with a focus on improving Global Service Learning (GSL) for engineering students. Originally centered on enhancing GSL experiences, the research was significantly redirected by the COVID-19 pandemic, offering valuable insights into designing education for uncertain and rapidly changing environments. In navigating today’s volatile, uncertain, complex, and ambiguous (VUCA) world, educators face ‘wicked problems’—deeply interconnected, value-laden challenges that resist straightforward solutions. Addressing these requires a shift in approach. Anticipatory design thinking, sensemaking, and futures studies offer powerful tools for engaging with such complexity. Anticipatory design involves envisioning future scenarios to guide present decisions; sensemaking enables individuals to interpret dynamic environments; and futures studies support both through forecasting and scenario planning. GSL, traditionally a collaborative effort between students and communities (e.g., engineering students designing infrastructure), faces new challenges in VUCA conditions. These include integrating GSL into curricula, preparing students—especially for remote engagement—and ensuring meaningful, equitable learning experiences. Critical considerations include project duration, suitability, and avoiding colonial dynamics in partnerships. Recognising education as a complex adaptive system, this research draws on systems thinking to respond to D-VUCA conditions (disruption, volatility, uncertainty, complexity, ambiguity). Systems thinking, with its emphasis on interconnections and feedback loops, supports resilience and adaptive change in educational contexts. Conventional planning models often fall short in addressing GSL’s complexity under VUCA conditions. While suspending GSL until stability returns is one option, it is increasingly impractical. Instead, this thesis advocates for developing flexible, responsive GSL models tailored to VUCA realities—models that reflect both student and community needs. To support decision-making in this context, the study applies General Morphological Analysis (GMA), a non-quantitative method for structuring and analysing complex problems across technological, organisational, and social dimensions. GMA facilitates sensemaking by uncovering assumptions and unknowns, which are often more critical than the models themselves. The research involved participatory development of four scenarios, two multidimensional GSL frameworks, and associated response descriptors. Initial recommendations emerged from this process, followed by a critical assessment that highlighted areas for further inquiry, such as the interplay between dependency and learning. To validate these insights, 31 interviews were conducted with GSL practitioners. Thematic analysis confirmed the relevance of the GMA model and informed final recommendations for GSL in a VUCA world. Ultimately, this thesis underscores the value of reflective practice and iterative research in educational design. By integrating anticipatory thinking, sensemaking, and futures studies, it offers a robust framework for addressing wicked problems and fostering resilience in global education.

Name thesis:degree_name

Doctor of Professional Practice

Level thesis:degree_level

Doctoral

Grantor

Otago Polytechnic

Year dc:date.issued

2025

Author dc:creator

• Mullens, Michael

• anticipatory thinking
• sensemaking
• educational design
• disruption
• morphological analysis
• Global Service Learning

Statement dc:rights

• CC BY-NC-ND Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 4.0 International

Language dc:language.iso

en

Handle dc:identifier.uri

https://hdl.handle.net/10652/7062

OAI identifier oai:identifier

oai:null:10652/7062