{"id":{"repo_id":"oldenburg","oai_identifier":"oai:oops.uni-oldenburg.de:233"},"canonical_url":"https://search.dev.ndltd.org/etd/oldenburg/oai:oops.uni-oldenburg.de:233","repository":{"repo_id":"oldenburg","name":"Carl von Ossietzky Universität Oldenburg","base_url":"http://oops.uni-oldenburg.de/cgi/oai2"},"display":{"title":"Analysis of the uncertainty of wind power predictions","abstract":"Wind power predictions improve the technical and economical integration of large shares of wind energy into the existing electricity supply system. In this work the uncertainty related to short-term predictions of the power output of wind farms is investigated in detail where uncertainty refers to the interval in which deviations between predicted value and real value are likely to occur. The main idea is to assess the prediction uncertainty not only in terms of annual averages and for individual wind farms but to introduce a new situation dependent approach to the uncertainty and, in addition, to analyse the benefits of predicting the aggregated power output of regionally dispersed wind farms. As forecast errors are hardly avoidable this work presents a method of predicting the individual uncertainty of wind power forecasts under consideration of the specific meteorological situation.","abstract_html":"Wind power predictions improve the technical and economical integration of large shares of wind energy into the existing electricity supply system. In this work the uncertainty related to short-term predictions of the power output of wind farms is investigated in detail where uncertainty refers to the interval in which deviations between predicted value and real value are likely to occur. The main idea is to assess the prediction uncertainty not only in terms of annual averages and for individual wind farms but to introduce a new situation dependent approach to the uncertainty and, in addition, to analyse the benefits of predicting the aggregated power output of regionally dispersed wind farms. As forecast errors are hardly avoidable this work presents a method of predicting the individual uncertainty of wind power forecasts under consideration of the specific meteorological situation.","abstract_has_math":false,"creators":["Lange, Matthias"],"institution":"Universität Oldenburg","degree_name":null,"degree_level":"thesis.doctoral","degree_discipline":null,"degree_department":null,"school":null,"contributors":[],"advisors":[],"committee_chairs":[],"committee_members":[],"year":2003,"date_issued":"2003-10-31","date_published":"2003-10-31","updated_at":"2026-07-27T20:27:18Z","subjects":["[Keine Schlagwörter von Autor/in vergeben.]"],"languages":[],"rights":[],"rights_urls":[],"identifier_entries":[]},"links":{"outbound_url":"http://oops.uni-oldenburg.de/233","outbound_label":"Repository record","outbound_source":"source_url"},"metadata_groups":[{"id":"people","label":"People","entries":[{"key":"dc:creator","label":"Author","values":["Lange, Matthias"]}]},{"id":"academic_context","label":"Academic Context","entries":[{"key":"dc:publisher","label":"Institution","values":["BIS der Universität Oldenburg"]},{"key":"dc:type","label":"Dc Type","values":["doctoralThesis"]},{"key":"thesis:degree_level","label":"Degree Level","values":["thesis.doctoral"]},{"key":"thesis:institution_name","label":"Thesis Institution Name","values":["Universität Oldenburg"]}]},{"id":"subjects_keywords","label":"Subjects and Keywords","entries":[{"key":"dc:subject","label":"Dc Subject","values":["[Keine Schlagwörter von Autor/in vergeben.]"]}]},{"id":"additional","label":"Additional Metadata","entries":[{"key":"dc:description.abstract","label":"Abstract","values":["Wind power predictions improve the technical and economical integration of large shares of wind energy into the existing electricity supply system. In this work the uncertainty related to short-term predictions of the power output of wind farms is investigated in detail where uncertainty refers to the interval in which deviations between predicted value and real value are likely to occur. The main idea is to assess the prediction uncertainty not only in terms of annual averages and for individual wind farms but to introduce a new situation dependent approach to the uncertainty and, in addition, to analyse the benefits of predicting the aggregated power output of regionally dispersed wind farms. As forecast errors are hardly avoidable this work presents a method of predicting the individual uncertainty of wind power forecasts under consideration of the specific meteorological situation.","Windleistungsvorhersagen verbessern die technische und ökonomische Einbindung großer Anteile an Windenergie in die Stromversorgung. In dieser Arbeit wird die Unsicherheit von Kurzzeit-Vorhersagen der Leistungsabgabe von Windparks eingehend untersucht. Dabei wird unter Unsicherheit der Bereich, in dem Abweichungen zwischen der Vorhersage und dem tatsächlichen Wert wahrscheinlich auftreten können, verstanden. Die grundlegende Idee ist, die Vorhersageunsicherheit nicht mehr nur als Jahresmittelwert und für einzelne Windparks anzugeben, sondern einen neuen, der jeweiligen Situation angepassten Ansatz zur Angabe der Unsicherheit zu entwickeln und darüber hinaus die Vorteile einer Vorhersage der Summenleistung von regional verteilten Windparks zu analysieren. Da sich Vorhersagefehler kaum vermeiden lassen, wird in dieser Arbeit eine Methode zur Beschreibung der individuellen Unsicherheit von Windleistungsvorhersagen unter Berücksichtigung der jeweiligen meterologischen Situation vorgestellt."]},{"key":"dc:format.medium","label":"Dc Format Medium","values":["application/pdf"]},{"key":"dc:title","label":"Title","values":["Analysis of the uncertainty of wind power predictions"]}]}],"canonical_facts":{"dc:creator":["Lange, Matthias"],"dc:description.abstract":["Wind power predictions improve the technical and economical integration of large shares of wind energy into the existing electricity supply system. In this work the uncertainty related to short-term predictions of the power output of wind farms is investigated in detail where uncertainty refers to the interval in which deviations between predicted value and real value are likely to occur. The main idea is to assess the prediction uncertainty not only in terms of annual averages and for individual wind farms but to introduce a new situation dependent approach to the uncertainty and, in addition, to analyse the benefits of predicting the aggregated power output of regionally dispersed wind farms. As forecast errors are hardly avoidable this work presents a method of predicting the individual uncertainty of wind power forecasts under consideration of the specific meteorological situation.","Windleistungsvorhersagen verbessern die technische und ökonomische Einbindung großer Anteile an Windenergie in die Stromversorgung. In dieser Arbeit wird die Unsicherheit von Kurzzeit-Vorhersagen der Leistungsabgabe von Windparks eingehend untersucht. Dabei wird unter Unsicherheit der Bereich, in dem Abweichungen zwischen der Vorhersage und dem tatsächlichen Wert wahrscheinlich auftreten können, verstanden. Die grundlegende Idee ist, die Vorhersageunsicherheit nicht mehr nur als Jahresmittelwert und für einzelne Windparks anzugeben, sondern einen neuen, der jeweiligen Situation angepassten Ansatz zur Angabe der Unsicherheit zu entwickeln und darüber hinaus die Vorteile einer Vorhersage der Summenleistung von regional verteilten Windparks zu analysieren. Da sich Vorhersagefehler kaum vermeiden lassen, wird in dieser Arbeit eine Methode zur Beschreibung der individuellen Unsicherheit von Windleistungsvorhersagen unter Berücksichtigung der jeweiligen meterologischen Situation vorgestellt."],"dc:format.medium":["application/pdf"],"dc:publisher":["BIS der Universität Oldenburg"],"dc:subject":["[Keine Schlagwörter von Autor/in vergeben.]"],"dc:title":["Analysis of the uncertainty of wind power predictions"],"dc:type":["doctoralThesis"],"thesis:degree_level":["thesis.doctoral"],"thesis:institution_name":["Universität Oldenburg"]},"updated_at":"2026-07-27T20:27:18Z"}